Soccer|$45 Vol|
50 days 4 hrsUEFA Europa Conference League: Team to advance to semis - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Rijeka
YesNo
Sigma Olomouc
YesNo
Celje
YesNo
AEK Larnaca
YesNo
Raków
YesNo
Samsunspor
YesNo
Lech Poznań
YesNo
Sparta Praha
YesNo
AEK Athens
YesNo
AZ Alkmaar
YesNo
Shakhtar Donetsk
YesNo
Mainz
YesNo
Crystal Palace
YesNo
Rayo Vallecano
YesNo
Fiorentina
YesNo
Strasbourg
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 21:48 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is severely broken. This is the Round of 16 for the 2025-26 Conference League; only 4 teams will advance to the semifinals, meaning the sum of all 'Yes' probabilities must mathematically equal 400%. The current market prices (~46 cents for all 16 teams) sum to ~736%, implying a massive premium of over 330%. Based on bookmaker data (Oddschecker/Squawka), Crystal Palace, Fiorentina, and Strasbourg are clear favorites, justifying a fair value of 40%-55% to reach the semis. Conversely, underdogs like Celje and Rijeka have tournament odds of 150/1, implying a true semifinal probability of <10%, making their current ~46c price absurdly overvalued.
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Divergence
There is a shocking divergence between market prices and reality. Polymarket prices Slovenian side Celje at 43.5% (43.5c) to reach the semis, whereas real-world betting odds imply <1% chance to win the tournament and likely <10% to reach the semis. The prediction market is treating all teams as equiprobable events (Uniform Distribution), completely ignoring the massive skill gap between teams like Crystal Palace (EPL) and Celje.
