All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Crystal Palace
YesNo
Lech Poznań
YesNo
Fiorentina
YesNo
RC Strasbourg
YesNo
Raków Częstochowa
YesNo
Samsunspor
YesNo
Sparta Praha
YesNo
Shakhtar Donetsk
YesNo
Rayo Vallecano
YesNo
FSV Mainz 05
YesNo
AEK Athens
YesNo
AZ Alkmaar
YesNo
Sigma Olomouc
YesNo
NK Rijeka
YesNo
NK Celje
YesNo
AEK Larnaca
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 11:49 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on the simulated date of March 17, 2026, the UECL Round of 16 first legs have concluded. AZ Alkmaar is the clear frontrunner for 'Top Scoring Club', having banked 4 goals in the KO Play-offs (vs FC Noah) and won their R16 first leg 2-1, with individual top scorers like Parrott (7) and Mijnans (6) padding their total. AEK Athens is the primary challenger after a 4-0 demolition of Celje in the first leg, virtually guaranteeing a Quarter-Final spot and more games to score. Conversely, Lech Poznań is vastly overpriced (35c) after losing 1-3 at home to Shakhtar, facing imminent elimination. Similarly, Samsunspor (lost 1-3) and Crystal Palace (0-0 draw, lower goal output) are overpriced. The market reflects an irrational 'uniform pricing' structure that has failed to incorporate the decisive first-leg results.
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Polymarket prices imply Lech Poznań (35c) is the favorite, whereas mainstream sports media and match results confirm Lech lost 1-3 at home to Shakhtar, is on the brink of elimination, and trails in total goals. Meanwhile, AZ Alkmaar and AEK Athens, who won their matches and lead in goals/advancement probability, are priced similarly or lower. The market pricing is completely ignoring the reality of the past week's fixtures.
