Retrieve the current 2025-26 UEFA Europa League bracket (Round of 16 or Quarter-finals) to confirm exactly which teams from England, Spain, Italy, etc., remain in the competition, and given the extremely low volume of ~$1.15 on Polymarket, analyze the order book for any "zombie odds" or arbitrage opportunities resulting from information lag.

AI-powered analysis for: Retrieve the current 2025-26 UEFA Europa League bracket (Round of 16 or Quarter-finals) to confirm exactly which teams from England, Spain, Italy, etc., remain in the competition, and given the extremely low volume of ~$1.15 on Polymarket, analyze the order book for any "zombie odds" or arbitrage opportunities resulting from information lag.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search official UEFA Europa League rules and current tournament status to confirm whether a country option (e.g., Denmark, Hungary) resolves to "No" immediately once all its clubs are mathematically eliminated, or if resolution is delayed until the final match, in order to assess the opportunity cost of capital lock-up.

AI-powered analysis for: Search official UEFA Europa League rules and current tournament status to confirm whether a country option (e.g., Denmark, Hungary) resolves to "No" immediately once all its clubs are mathematically eliminated, or if resolution is delayed until the final match, in order to assess the opportunity cost of capital lock-up.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Search for real-time "Winner" odds for all remaining clubs in the 2026 Europa League on mainstream sportsbooks (e.g., Bet365, DraftKings), sum the implied probabilities of all clubs belonging to the same country (e.g., England) to calculate the theoretical fair value of that nation winning, and compare this against the current Bid/Ask prices on Polymarket to identify value discrepancies.

AI-powered analysis for: Search for real-time "Winner" odds for all remaining clubs in the 2026 Europa League on mainstream sportsbooks (e.g., Bet365, DraftKings), sum the implied probabilities of all clubs belonging to the same country (e.g., England) to calculate the theoretical fair value of that nation winning, and compare this against the current Bid/Ask prices on Polymarket to identify value discrepancies.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Sports|$1,049 Vol|

64 days 2 hrs

UEFA Europa League: Home country of champion - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Germany

YesNo

26¢

74¢

8¢

92¢

0¢

+18¢

Portugal

YesNo

30.5¢

69.5¢

13¢

87¢

0¢

+17.5¢

France

YesNo

30¢

70¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+15¢

Spain

YesNo

28.5¢

71.5¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+13.5¢

Greece

YesNo

9.5¢

90.5¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+9.5¢

Belgium

YesNo

9.5¢

90.5¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+8.5¢

Denmark

YesNo

9.5¢

90.5¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+7.5¢

Italy

YesNo

10.5¢

89.5¢

14¢

86¢

+3.5¢

0¢

England

YesNo

35¢

65¢

32¢

68¢

0¢

+3¢

Hungary

YesNo

2.65¢

97.35¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+2.6¢

AI Insights:

03.11 16:28 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

With the tournament in the Round of 16, the remaining 16 teams map perfectly to the listed options. England holds the highest probability (~32%) with the clear favorite Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest. Italy's chances are capped (~14%) because their two representatives (Roma, Bologna) face each other in the R16, guaranteeing one elimination. France (Lyon) and Spain (Betis) follow closely. Current market pricing is completely irrational, with implied probabilities summing to ~400%.

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Divergence

Market prices are completely disconnected from reality. The prediction market implies a ~40% win probability for every country (summing to ~400%), which is mathematically impossible. Furthermore, the market prices France (43%) as the favorite, whereas mainstream sportsbooks consistently rank England (led by Aston Villa) as the clear favorite.

UEFA Europa League: Home country of champion - AI Odds Analysis

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