All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Genk
YesNo
Midtjylland
YesNo
Panathinaikos
YesNo
Ferencváros
YesNo
Celta
YesNo
Freiburg
YesNo
Bologna
YesNo
Braga
YesNo
Nottingham Forest
YesNo
Lille
YesNo
Stuttgart
YesNo
Lyon
YesNo
Real Betis
YesNo
Roma
YesNo
Porto
YesNo
Aston Villa
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 12:13 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 12, 2026, the competition is in the Round of 16 stage with 16 teams remaining to compete for 4 semifinal spots. The sum of the fair probabilities for all teams advancing must equal exactly 400% (4.0). However, the current market prices imply a total probability of ~700% (avg ~44% per team), which is mathematically impossible. Therefore, the fair value for every option is significantly lower than the market price. Based on team strength, Aston Villa, Roma, and Porto are favorites and assigned higher valuations (35-40c), while underdogs like Genk and Ferencváros have a very low probability of advancing (<15c).
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Divergence
Significant divergence. Mathematical reality dictates that only 4 out of 16 teams can advance (avg 25% probability), yet the prediction market prices imply nearly every team has a ~50% chance. This massive discrepancy (700% vs 400%) is likely due to extremely low liquidity ($6.0 volume) leaving prices at default initial values, or severe market inefficiency.
