All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Barnabás Varga
YesNo
Abde Ezzalzouli
YesNo
Anass Zaroury
YesNo
Corentin Tolisso
YesNo
Hamza Igamane
YesNo
Riccardo Orsolini
YesNo
Oh Hyeon-gyu
YesNo
Bilal El Khannouss
YesNo
Petar Stanić
YesNo
Igor Jesus
YesNo
Thijs Dallinga
YesNo
Karol Świderski
YesNo
Antony
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 18:29 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market pricing is extremely irrational (sum of probabilities >500%). As of March 12, 2026, Igor Jesus (Nottingham Forest) and Petar Stanić (Ludogorets) are joint leaders with 7 goals. Crucial Fact: Ludogorets has been eliminated, capping Stanić's tally at 7. Nottingham Forest is still active in the Round of 16 (despite a 0-1 first-leg loss to Midtjylland), making Igor Jesus the only leader capable of scoring more. Barnabás Varga transferred to AEK Athens in January and left the competition with only 4 goals (3 behind leaders), meaning his winning probability is effectively 0%. The only active threat is Bilal El Khannouss (Stuttgart, 5 goals). Fair value implies Igor Jesus is the clear favorite, while eliminated/transferred players should be priced near zero.
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Rule Risk
There is a notable tie-breaker clause: if goal counts are tied and no single official leader is declared, the winner is determined by alphabetical order of the last name. This differs from standard sports betting rules (often dead-heat or assists tie-breakers), introducing a non-sporting risk based on nomenclature.
Divergence
Extreme divergence. Real-world data confirms Igor Jesus (7 goals, active) is the strong favorite, Stanić (7 goals, eliminated) is a passive candidate holding a precarious lead, and Varga (4 goals, transferred) is out. Yet, the prediction market prices all of them (and several trailers) at ~40c (~40% probability), which is mathematically absurd (sum > 100%). The market is completely ignoring fundamental data regarding player transfers and team eliminations.
