All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Rayo Vallecano
YesNo
Strasbourg
YesNo
Sigma Olomouc
YesNo
AEK Athens
YesNo
Shakhtar Donetsk
YesNo
AZ Alkmaar
YesNo
Fiorentina
YesNo
Sparta Praha
YesNo
Celje
YesNo
Raków Częstochowa
YesNo
Mainz
YesNo
Crystal Palace
YesNo
Samsunspor
YesNo
AEK Larnaca
YesNo
Rijeka
YesNo
Lech Poznań
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 12:44 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is significantly over-vigged, with the sum of 'Yes' prices reaching 133.85%, far exceeding the mathematical limit of 100%. This implies most options are heavily overpriced. Fundamentally, Crystal Palace (EPL) and Fiorentina (Serie A) possess the strongest squad depth and European pedigree, making them the clear Tier 1 favorites. The market's pricing of Strasbourg (24c) is overly aggressive, placing them on par with Palace, which likely underestimates the dominance of EPL sides in knockout stages. Tail-end teams like Celje and Sigma Olomouc (~3-4c) exhibit typical 'lottery premium'; their actual win probability at the Round of 16 stage should be <1%. Fair values have been normalized to reflect a realistic 100% total probability.
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Firstly, the prediction market's total implied probability (134%) severely contradicts mathematical reality (100%). Secondly, mainstream sportsbooks and analytics typically assign a much clearer advantage to Premier League sides (Crystal Palace), likely >35%, whereas this market has Strasbourg (Ligue 1) effectively tied with them (~25%). This is highly unusual in traditional sports analysis and suggests irrational exuberance or specific hedging behavior favoring Strasbourg among market participants.
