All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Ferencváros
YesNo
Braga
YesNo
Midtjylland
YesNo
Nottingham Forest
YesNo
Stuttgart
YesNo
Porto
YesNo
Lille
YesNo
Aston Villa
YesNo
Real Betis
YesNo
Panathinaikos
YesNo
Lyon
YesNo
Celta
YesNo
Genk
YesNo
Freiburg
YesNo
Bologna
YesNo
Roma
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 06:53 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The sum of current market prices is 8.005, which is extremely close to the total number of qualifying spots for the quarter-finals (8). This indicates the market has efficiently priced the probabilities based on the Round of 16 matchups. The price distribution implies specific pairings (e.g., Betis vs Panathinaikos, Porto vs Stuttgart), with Betis, Nottingham Forest, and Braga identified as strong favorites (>70%) likely due to first-leg leads or squad superiority. The tight pricing for Porto vs Stuttgart (50.5 vs 49.5) and Lyon vs Celta (52 vs 48) suggests these ties are dead heats, possibly following a draw. Given the total probability mass is nearly perfectly conserved (~800%), the current prices represent fair value with no significant market inefficiency.
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Hedging
OLG
ASR
This event has no impact on macro assets (e.g., S&P 500, Bitcoin). However, for listed football clubs in the options (e.g., AS Roma ticker ASR, Lyon/OL Groupe ticker OLG), reaching the quarter-finals secures UEFA prize money and TV revenue, constituting a material catalyst sufficient to move their specific stock prices, serving as a direct hedge for shareholders.
