US announces shutdown of Gaza military center by May 15?
Politics|$211 Vol|
time11 days 23 hrs

US announces shutdown of Gaza military center by May 15? - AI Found +11.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.02 05:27
Top Undervalued
+11.5¢
(No)

US announces shutdown of Gaza military center by May 15? AI analysis: • +11.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Despite a May 1 Reuters report citing multiple diplomats that the US is preparing to shut down the C...
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Highest temperature in Paris on May 3?
Weather|$38.3k Vol|
time11 hrs 54 mins

Highest temperature in Paris on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+37.5¢
20°C(No)
+11.9¢
17°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature in Paris on May 3, 2026, is expected ...
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Exotics
Betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a somewhat niche and novelty market. While weather forecasts are common, betting on them to the exact degree is rare for the general public and mostly appeals to weather enthusiasts or quantitative modelers.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution rules for the Paris temperature market simply: how is the Wunderground data at Le Bourget Airport Station recorded, and what is the specific impact of resolving only to whole degrees Celsius?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 3?
Weather|$11.1k Vol|
time11 hrs 54 mins

Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+12.5¢
17°C(No)
+10¢
16°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts, the lowest temperature at Shanghai Pudong International Airpo...
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AI Analysis
How exactly will the lowest temperature on May 3 at Shanghai Pudong Airport be resolved using Wunderground data, and how does the 'whole degrees Celsius' rule affect the outcome?
Highest temperature in London on May 3?
Weather|$48.9k Vol|
time11 hrs 54 mins

Highest temperature in London on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+32.5¢
20°C(No)
+24¢
18°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature in London on May 3, 2026, is expecte...
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AI Analysis
Explain the resolution rules for this London temperature prediction market in simple terms, specifically how the finalization time of Wunderground's EGLC station data and the whole-degree Celsius rounding rule work.
Which AI company will have the second-highest revenue May 4-10?
Tech|$10.7k Vol|
time6 days 23 hrs

Which AI company will have the second-highest revenue May 4-10?

Top Undervalued
+61.9¢
OpenAI(No)
+11.6¢
MiniMax(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The sum of the Yes prices across all options currently stands at 2.295, vastly exceeding the theoret...
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Rule Risk
The market asks for the 'second-highest' rather than the highest revenue, which could trap inattentive traders. Additionally, resolution relies entirely on short-term estimated data from a specific third-party platform (Anera) rather than official earnings, introducing risk of unexpected outcomes due to changes in estimation methodology or data delays.
Exotics
While predicting the revenue performance of top AI companies is relatively common, targeting the 'second place' for estimated inference revenue within a specific single week is highly niche and obscure, giving it a moderate level of novelty.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria and win/loss conditions for the 'second-highest AI company inference revenue May 4-10' market using the simplest language (ELI5).
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 3?
Weather|$17.4k Vol|
time11 hrs 54 mins

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+29¢
21°C(No)
+25.5¢
22°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest Wunderground forecast, the high temperature for Sao Paulo-Guarulhos Internat...
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Exotics
Weather prediction is a standard but niche category in prediction markets. While specialized traders focus on this, the general public rarely speculates on the exact high temperature of a specific city on a specific day.
Divergence
The prediction market currently concentrates its highest probabilities on 19°C, 20°C, and 21°C (totaling over 60%), but the resolution source (Wunderground) currently forecasts a high of only 64°F (~18°C) for May 3. Market prices may be influenced by other forecasting models (e.g., AccuWeather predicting 23°C) or historical climate averages, creating a noticeable divergence from the short-term forecast of the official resolution source.
AI Analysis
How exactly does Wunderground determine the 'highest temperature recorded' for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos Airport station, and what are the exact win/loss conditions?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
YesNo
26.5¢
73.5¢
15¢
85¢
0¢
+11.5¢
⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Divergence
Polymarket's current 'Yes' price is 26.5c, reflecting a non-trivial market expectation of a shutdown announcement. However, the US Board of Peace has just explicitly denied the Reuters report publicly, stating that claims of closure are 'wrong'. The divergence exists because the market is likely heavily weighting the Reuters insider leaks over the official denial, perhaps betting on the Trump administration's erratic decision-making, whereas the official stance makes an immediate reversal unlikely.

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