All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
2.0–2.5%
YesNo
2.5–3.0%
YesNo
1.0–1.5%
YesNo
<1.0%
YesNo
≥3.5%
YesNo
1.5–2.0%
YesNo
3.0–3.5%
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.14 22:19 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is undergoing a violent 'sentiment repair' and trend reversal. The recession bets (<1.0%) built on panic around March 8 have rapidly disintegrated over the last 3 days (dropping from 30.9c to 15c), with capital aggressively rotating back into 'overheating' expectations. The '≥3.5%' option nearly doubled in three days (16.5c to 29c). This indicates the market now views the panic-inducing macro data as noise or falsified by new strong data (e.g., consumption or inflation). Fair value should currently track this momentum, tilting towards the high-growth range (≥3.0%), while the moderate growth middle (1.5-2.5%) remains marginalized, presenting a 'dumbbell' distribution shifting to the right.
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Hedging
US 10Y Yield
DXY
Russell 2000
S&P 500
US GDP data is a key macroeconomic indicator influencing monetary policy expectations (Fed rate cut/hike path). If Q1 2026 data significantly deviates from expectations (e.g., signaling recession or overheating), it will directly impact US Treasury yields (especially the 10Y) and the DXY. For equities, interest-rate-sensitive small caps (Russell 2000) and the S&P 500 will also react significantly. This is a standard macro-trading event.
Movers
Mar 11, 2026 - Mar 14, 2026, the price of '≥3.5%' surged from 16.5c to 29c, while '<1.0%' dropped from 22.1c to 15c. The reason is the rapid dissipation of recession panic, with investors doubling down on strong Q1 US economic growth, completing the right side of a V-shaped reversal.
Mar 5, 2026 - Mar 7, 2026, the price of '<1.0%' surged from 14c to 24.1c, while '≥3.5%' plunged from 34.5c to 22.5c, driven by a sudden collapse in the strong economy consensus, spooked by weak macro data, causing capital to panic-rotate to 'hard landing bets'.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream economists and the Fed (SEP) typically forecast GDP growth returning to the 1.8%-2.0% trend line, consistent with a 'soft landing.' However, the prediction market is currently extreme: betting heavily on either very high growth (~30% for ≥3.5%) or deep recession (15% for <1.0%), while the 'consensus range' (1.5-2.0%) is severely underpriced (only ~9%). The market is trading a 'Boom or Bust' scenario rather than a smooth transition.
