All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
March 31, 2026
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 01:17 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
With only ~2 weeks remaining until March 31, conducting a qualifying underground nuclear test (producing a chain reaction) at the NNSS is logistically impossible. Such tests require months of satellite-visible preparation (drilling, cabling), none of which has been observed. Despite hawkish rhetoric from the Trump administration and Assistant Secretary Christopher Yeaw in February regarding readiness, the Department of Energy's (NNSA) actual operations are limited to 'subcritical' experiments (e.g., the Nimble series at PULSE), which explicitly do not produce a chain reaction and thus resolve 'No'. Recent minor tremors in Nevada were confirmed by USGS as natural tectonic activity, debunking secret test rumors.
Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy No
Plan Description:
With 'No' priced at 99.3c and only 15 days to expiration, the probability of 'Yes' is technically near zero due to the absence of visible physical preparations (drilling, cabling) required for a nuclear test. This offers a low-risk yield opportunity (approx. 17% annualized) rather than a technical arbitrage, effectively a 'smart money' cash parking play.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 0¢
|Annualized yield: 17.1%
Exotics
This is a highly exotic and unconventional question. The US has not conducted a yield-producing nuclear test since 1992 (only subcritical experiments). While geopolitical tensions are high, breaking a 30+ year moratorium within a 48-day window represents a drastic and largely unexpected scenario.
Hedging
Crude Oil
US 10Y Yield
Gold
S&P 500
Bitcoin
If the US were to conduct a nuclear test, it would be a massive escalation in global security tensions, signaling a breakdown in nuclear non-proliferation norms and triggering extreme risk-off sentiment. Gold would likely skyrocket as the ultimate safe haven. Equities (S&P 500) would likely crash due to panic selling. US Treasury yields would experience high volatility due to a flight to safety. This qualifies as an extreme 'Black Swan' event with financial impact comparable to the outbreak of a major war.
