All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
March 31
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 09:55 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Fundamentals point towards 'No'. 1. Momentum Exhaustion: The price experienced a brief panic spike on March 12 (47.4c) but halved to 24.5c within 4 days. This indicates that the bet on a 'sudden strike' failed again, crushing bullish sentiment. 2. Closing Window: With only 14 days left until March 31, the US typically does not launch airstrikes without an immediate trigger event. Since the mid-March tensions did not convert into kinetic action, the probability of a strike decays exponentially with each passing day. 3. Reversion from Noise: The current 24.5c still contains a ~5c-10c 'tail risk premium'. Given the lack of clear military mobilization signs for an immediate strike, fair value should be closer to 20c.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
The definition of a 'strike' is highly specific and exclusionary. Key risks include: 1. Intercepted missiles and surface-to-air strikes do not count (even if debris causes damage); 2. Artillery, small arms, direct ground incursions, and naval shelling are explicitly excluded. This deviates significantly from the colloquial understanding of a 'strike'. If the US conducts naval shelling or a special ops raid, the public might perceive it as a strike, but this market would resolve 'No'.
Hedging
Crude Oil
Gold
A direct US strike on Yemen soil would mark a significant escalation in the Red Sea conflict, directly threatening Middle East oil shipping lanes. This would immediately trigger a spike in the risk premium for Crude Oil. Gold, as a safe-haven asset, typically rises with geopolitical tension. While a single strike might not crash US equities, the expectation of rising energy costs could indirectly impact inflation expectations and Treasury yields.
Movers
March 12, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price for the March 31 option plummeted from 47.4c to 24.5c. The reason was that the brief price spike on March 12 (likely driven by rumors or false reports) failed to be substantiated by official confirmation or kinetic action. As the end of the month approaches, time value is decaying rapidly, leading to a stampede exit by bulls.
March 3, 2026 - March 6, 2026, the price for the March 31 option plummeted from 69c to 37c. The reason was the failure of the anticipated 'immediate retaliation' to materialize. Although prices were bid up to near 70% on panic regarding 'US deployment completion,' the absence of kinetic action over the subsequent days led to a rapid exit of bullish capital and a 'volatility crush.'
February 20, 2026 - February 26, 2026, the price for the March 31 option slowly drifted down from 20.5c to 19c, as the market adopted a wait-and-see approach after digesting 'US buildup' news without immediate feedback.
