All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
5–15%
YesNo
15–25%
YesNo
35%+
YesNo
<5%
YesNo
25–35%
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 06:18 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 17, 2026, with only 14 days until settlement (March 31), the current effective total tariff rate stands at ~13% (10% global surcharge + ~3% MFN), firmly within the '5–15%' bracket. While the market pricing for '15–25%' has rebounded to 23.5c, this likely reflects panic hedging against a sudden executive order. Given that administrative orders typically require a notice period and the time window is extremely tight, the probability of a new tariff being announced AND becoming 'effective' is very low. '5–15%' is undervalued, while '15–25%' carries a premium.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' contracts on all 5 options.
Plan Description:
The sum of the 'No' prices for all options is approximately 3.9875. In a mutually exclusive market, exactly one option will resolve to Yes (losing 1 'No' share), and the other 4 will resolve to No (winning 4 'No' shares). Total cost ~3.99, Total payout 4.00. This is a small risk-free arbitrage (Negative Risk Premium).Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 1¢
|Annualized yield: 8.1%
Rule Risk
The core risk lies in defining the 'general tariff rate.' While the rules attempt to clarify with an example (e.g., 10% universal + 10% China-specific = 20%), trade policy is notoriously nuanced. Ambiguities may arise if tariffs are broad but not strictly 'universal' (e.g., covering only certain sectors) or if tiered structures under Section 301 are used. The exclusion of 'item specific exceptions' could be contentious if a tariff covers the vast majority of goods but technically has exemptions, making the 'general' rate debatable.
Hedging
DXY
PDD
AAPL
S&P 500
BABA
Tariff policy is a major macroeconomic variable. If the tariff rate resolves significantly higher or lower than expected (e.g., a sudden implementation of 35%+), it will directly impact US companies reliant on Chinese supply chains (e.g., Apple) and Chinese export-oriented firms (e.g., PDD, Alibaba). The DXY typically fluctuates due to inflationary expectations and safe-haven flows associated with tariffs, while the S&P 500 would likely react to trade war fears. This is a classic high-correlation macro event.
Movers
Mar 13, 2026 - Mar 16, 2026, the price of '5–15%' dropped from 80.5c to 69.5c, while '15–25%' rebounded from 11c to 23.5c. This movement was driven by renewed hedging or reaction to political rhetoric, fearing a last-minute executive order despite the tight timeline.
Mar 06, 2026 - Mar 09, 2026, the market entered a brief consolidation period with '5–15%' recovering slightly and no fluctuations exceeding 10c, indicating the market was awaiting new administrative signals.
Mar 01, 2026 - Mar 02, 2026, the price of '15–25%' rebounded from 28c to 41c, driven by renewed speculation that Trump might raise tariffs on China above 15% for political leverage.
Feb 27, 2026 - Feb 28, 2026, the price of '15–25%' crashed from 61.5c to 28c, while '5–15%' surged from 32.5c to 60c, as the market digested the new 10% surcharge policy, confirming the total effective rate is ~13%.
