All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
June 30
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.11 21:17 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market rules strictly require a public announcement of a nuclear agreement between August 14, 2025, and December 31, 2025. As of March 11, 2026, this window has fully elapsed without any such announcement. The requirement for the announcement to occur 'within the time frame' precludes any retroactive qualifications. The outcome is deterministically 'No', rendering the fair value of the 'Yes' option 0.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy No (June 30)
Plan Description:
The price for 'No' is 86.5 cents, despite the event window (late 2025) having closed with no agreement occurred. This is a low-risk yield opportunity on a 'zombie market' where the outcome is deterministically 'No'. While not a technical arbitrage (cost < 100), the logical win rate is 100%. Holding until the June 30 resolution yields a ~15.6% return (approx. 51.7% annualized).Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 13¢
|Annualized yield: 51.7%
Rule Risk
There is a significant conflict regarding timeframes. The title implies a deadline ('by...?') and the option is 'June 30', yet the rules explicitly define the valid window as 'August 14, 2025 to December 31, 2025'. This inconsistency is highly misleading; users might assume the bet is about an event before June 30, while the market strictly resolves based on the late-2025 window. The 'June 30' option label is confusing and likely a remnant of a series, mismatching the specific rule logic.
Hedging
Crude Oil
LMT
Gold
S&P 500
If a US-Russia nuclear deal is reached, it would signify a major de-escalation of global geopolitical risk, likely causing a sharp drop in safe-haven assets (Gold) and a decline in defense stocks (e.g., Lockheed Martin - LMT) due to expectations of a cooling arms race. Crude Oil might fluctuate on speculation of potential sanctions relief (even if the deal is strictly nuclear, it implies thawing relations). Such an unexpected geopolitical breakthrough carries a medium-to-high market impact.
Divergence
The market price implies a ~13.5% probability, whereas the reality is 0% as the event window (end of 2025) has passed without occurrence. This significant divergence is likely due to traders confusing the market resolution date (June 2026) with the event deadline (Dec 2025), resulting in dead money remaining in the market.
