All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
$1B
YesNo
$400M
YesNo
$500M
YesNo
$300M
YesNo
$2B
YesNo
$800M
YesNo
$4B
YesNo
$6B
YesNo
$3B
YesNo
$150M
YesNo
AI Insights:
52 minutes ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The fair value analysis for USD.AI has seen a positive revision. The core anchor, the $300M option (CoinList issue price), has rebounded significantly from 38c to 44.5c, indicating a shift in market sentiment from 'fearing a break below issue price' to 'optimism about holding the issue price.' This uptick may be driven by a broader crypto market recovery or renewed interest in the AI sector. However, options at $400M and above remain depressed ($400M is only at 12.5c), revealing an asymmetry in expectations: investors assign a near 50% probability to the token trading above its issue price ($300M+), but a very low probability (~12%) of it achieving gains exceeding 33% ($400M+). Thus, the current pricing logic suggests the token will likely hover near the listing price rather than mooning. The $150M option remains strong at ~86c as a defensive bet, confirming the market sees a low likelihood of a catastrophic crash (50% drop).
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Rule Risk
The main risk lies in the definition of FDV and data sources. FDV depends on Total Supply and Price; the definition of Total Supply at launch can be contentious (e.g., whether to include locked tokens). Additionally, the 'most liquid price source' can be highly volatile or subject to manipulation in the early stages. The condition that the market resolves to 'No' if the token doesn't launch by end of 2026 is also a significant time-based risk.
Exotics
This is a niche market concerning the token launch of a specific crypto startup (USD.AI). Apart from those following DeFi and stablecoin sectors, the general public is likely unaware of it. It represents specific vertical speculation rather than a mainstream topic.
