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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
March 31
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 23:28 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
For the 'March 14' option, the deadline has passed with no confirmed strike, rendering the fair value zero. For 'March 31', despite the ongoing 'Operation Epic Fury' against Iran, the Houthis have demonstrated significant tactical restraint, avoiding the immediate entry into the war that was previously feared. Intelligence indicates US warnings sent via Oman and internal Houthi divisions have led to a 'holding back' posture. While Houthi leadership rhetoric remains bellicose ('fingers on the trigger'), the absence of kinetic attacks denies the US a trigger to open a Yemen front. Consequently, the previous high-probability thesis (72%) has degraded. The market is correctly repricing to reflect a conflict currently contained to Iran, though maintaining a >40% premium is warranted given the risk of Houthi activation as the Iranian regime becomes more desperate.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'March 14' No
Plan Description:
The March 14 deadline has passed. Per rules, if no strike is confirmed, the market resolves to 'No' two days after the resolution time (end of March 16 ET). With only hours remaining until final settlement and no reported strikes, buying 'No' at 99.75c yields a 0.25c profit. While the absolute return is small, the annualized yield is extremely high due to the negligible capital lock-up period (<1 day), with virtually zero risk.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 0¢
|Annualized yield: 486%
Hedging
Crude Oil
ZIM
A strike by the US or Israel on Yemen (primarily the Houthis) would directly escalate the Red Sea shipping crisis, impacting global energy transit routes. Therefore, Crude Oil prices are most sensitive. ZIM (ZIM Integrated Shipping Services), as an Israeli-linked shipping stock, is highly exposed to the Red Sea situation and would show significant volatility. Gold and DXY would react as safe havens, but the impact would be minor unless the conflict escalates significantly into a regional war.
