April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Man on Fire: Season 1' surged from ~26.5c to around 60.5c as viewership data heading into the weekend showed it taking a commanding lead for the #1 spot. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Should I Marry A Murderer?' saw a sharp spike from 10c to a peak of 45c before settling at 32.5c, reflecting sudden viral momentum and a market repricing of its competitive chances. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Running Point: Season 2' dropped from 42.5c to ~30.5c, losing its frontrunner status as competing shows gained stronger late-week traction.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged from 35.5c to 98.55c, while the 23°C option plummeted from 48c to under 2c, because real-time meteorological observations on the resolution day gradually confirmed the highest temperature was 22°C. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 23°C option plummeted from 48c to 24.5c (earlier phase), as updated meteorological data closer to the resolution day indicated a slightly lower high temperature, leaning towards 22°C. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 22°C option surged from 28c to 41c (earlier phase), because weather forecasts narrowed the prediction range, locking in 22°C as the most probable high temperature. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026, the price of the 21°C option dropped from 30c to 6.5c and then rebounded to 26c, reflecting fluctuations in weather models regarding the impact of cold air.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 33°C option surged from 36c to 99.85c, while the 34°C option plummeted from 18.8c to 0.15c. This occurred because as the late afternoon of May 3 local time arrived, the daily maximum temperature was effectively recorded and locked in at 33°C. May 1, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 33°C option climbed steadily from around 28.5c to 41.5c, while the 31°C option plummeted from 21c to 9.5c. This shift was driven by approaching resolution and higher-than-expected early morning temperatures on May 3, shifting market confidence towards a higher peak temperature.

This is a highly specific, gossip-driven political market. Unless there is breaking legal news regarding him, the general public does not typically speculate on whether a former FBI Director will have a mugshot released within a specific week, making it quite novel and exotic.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: The price of the 29°C option surged from 30c to 99.75c, while the 28°C option plummeted from 42.5c to 0.15c. The reason is that on the settlement day, the actual temperature successfully climbed into the 29°C range before the cold front and rainbands arrived in the afternoon, overturning the market's previous overpricing of the cooling effect. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 30°C option plummeted from 27c to 8.5c, and the 29°C option dropped from 48c to 35.5c, while the 28°C option surged from 22.5c to 43c. The reason is that as the resolution date approached, updated weather forecasts confirmed heavier rain and cloud cover, prompting the market to discount the likelihood of higher temperatures and shift the peak probability range down to 28°C.