[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for the UT-02 House Election, and considering the extremely low trading volume (~$87) alongside Utah's deep-red fundamental bias, assess if the current bid-ask spread supports entry and if the odds reflect mispricing due to liquidity drying up.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for the UT-02 House Election, and considering the extremely low trading volume (~$87) alongside Utah's deep-red fundamental bias, assess if the current bid-ask spread supports entry and if the odds reflect mispricing due to liquidity drying up.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Background Verification] Historical Margins & PVI Check: Search for the Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Utah's 2nd District (UT-02) and the victory margins of the incumbent Republican (e.g., Celeste Maloy) in the last two cycles to quantify the realistic probability ceiling for a Democratic upset.

AI-powered analysis for: [Background Verification] Historical Margins & PVI Check: Search for the Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Utah's 2nd District (UT-02) and the victory margins of the incumbent Republican (e.g., Celeste Maloy) in the last two cycles to quantify the realistic probability ceiling for a Democratic upset.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision Calculation] Capital Lock-up & Opportunity Cost: Given the resolution date of Nov 4, 2026, calculate the net profit of betting on the favorite (Republican) after deducting the opportunity cost of risk-free DeFi yields (e.g., 4% APY) over the same period, to determine if locking capital in this low-liquidity market is economically viable.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision Calculation] Capital Lock-up & Opportunity Cost: Given the resolution date of Nov 4, 2026, calculate the net profit of betting on the favorite (Republican) after deducting the opportunity cost of risk-free DeFi yields (e.g., 4% APY) over the same period, to determine if locking capital in this low-liquidity market is economically viable.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

UT-02 House Election Winner

Elections|$195 Vol|

184 days 18 hrs

UT-02 House Election Winner - AI Found +22¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.28 00:10

Top Undervalued

+22¢

Republican Party(Yes)

+6.5¢

Democratic Party(No)

UT-02 House Election Winner AI analysis: • +22¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the district fundamentals, UT-02 (Utah's 2nd Congressional District) is a 'Solid Republican...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Republican Party

YesNo

74¢

26¢

96¢

4¢

+22¢

0¢

Democratic Party

YesNo

10.5¢

89.5¢

4¢

96¢

0¢

+6.5¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Movers

April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the Republican Party Yes price plummeted from 80.5c to 54c, while the Democratic Party Yes price surged from 15.5c to 36.5c. Given the unchanged fundamentals of UT-02, this drastic shift is highly likely caused by irrational large trades in a low-liquidity market. April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the Yes price of the Republican Party option plummeted from 83c to 56c. Lacking district-level breaking news, this volatility is primarily attributed to large sell-offs or irrational capital flight in a low-liquidity market, leading to severe pricing inefficiencies. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the Yes price of the Democratic Party option plummeted from 24.5c to 10c, reflecting a self-correction of prices under low market liquidity, though it still failed to fully resolve the pricing inefficiency. March 5, 2026, the Republican Party price experienced a volatile downward trend from 82.5c to 73.5c (a 9c drop) within a few hours. While close, it did not trigger the 10c shock threshold, indicating liquidity fluctuations in the absence of new news. February 9, 2026 - February 11, 2026, prices remained extremely flat with the Republican option holding at 77.5c, indicating a stagnant market.

Divergence

The prediction market currently assigns a 54% probability of a Republican win, which severely diverges from mainstream election forecasters and the deep-red nature of the district. UT-02 is traditionally a Republican stronghold, and mainstream consensus views the GOP win probability as exceeding 95%.