[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for the UT-02 House Election, and considering the extremely low trading volume (~$87) alongside Utah's deep-red fundamental bias, assess if the current bid-ask spread supports entry and if the odds reflect mispricing due to liquidity drying up.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for the UT-02 House Election, and considering the extremely low trading volume (~$87) alongside Utah's deep-red fundamental bias, assess if the current bid-ask spread supports entry and if the odds reflect mispricing due to liquidity drying up.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Background Verification] Historical Margins & PVI Check: Search for the Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Utah's 2nd District (UT-02) and the victory margins of the incumbent Republican (e.g., Celeste Maloy) in the last two cycles to quantify the realistic probability ceiling for a Democratic upset.

AI-powered analysis for: [Background Verification] Historical Margins & PVI Check: Search for the Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI) for Utah's 2nd District (UT-02) and the victory margins of the incumbent Republican (e.g., Celeste Maloy) in the last two cycles to quantify the realistic probability ceiling for a Democratic upset.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision Calculation] Capital Lock-up & Opportunity Cost: Given the resolution date of Nov 4, 2026, calculate the net profit of betting on the favorite (Republican) after deducting the opportunity cost of risk-free DeFi yields (e.g., 4% APY) over the same period, to determine if locking capital in this low-liquidity market is economically viable.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision Calculation] Capital Lock-up & Opportunity Cost: Given the resolution date of Nov 4, 2026, calculate the net profit of betting on the favorite (Republican) after deducting the opportunity cost of risk-free DeFi yields (e.g., 4% APY) over the same period, to determine if locking capital in this low-liquidity market is economically viable.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Elections|$87 Vol|

230 days 4 hrs

UT-02 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Republican Party

YesNo

73.5¢

26.5¢

96¢

4¢

+22.5¢

0¢

Democratic Party

YesNo

18.5¢

81.5¢

4¢

96¢

0¢

+14.5¢

AI Insights:

03.12 18:11 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Based on the November 2025 redistricting context, UT-02 has been redrawn as a 'Solid Republican' district. In standard US political forecasting models, the GOP win probability for such seats typically exceeds 99%. The current market price (~74c) implies a ~26% chance for Democrats, which severely contradicts the 'deep red' fundamentals and represents significant pricing inefficiency. The fair value assessment of 96c is maintained.

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Divergence

Significant divergence exists. The prediction market currently prices UT-02 as a competitive district (~74% GOP), whereas political fundamentals (a post-redistricting deep red seat) indicate a GOP win probability near 100%. This divergence likely stems from persistent confusion or information lag among market participants regarding the specific details of Utah's redistricting (UT-02 becoming red vs. UT-01 becoming swing).

UT-02 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

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