[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event. Given the extremely low trading volume (~$240), analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for the 'Republican Party' option. Does the current price fully reflect the fundamentals of Utah's 3rd District as a traditional 'Deep Red' stronghold, or is there anomalous pricing due to illiquidity?

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event. Given the extremely low trading volume (~$240), analyze the bid-ask spread and depth for the 'Republican Party' option. Does the current price fully reflect the fundamentals of Utah's 3rd District as a traditional 'Deep Red' stronghold, or is there anomalous pricing due to illiquidity?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Niche Market] Historical Frequency & Lean Verification: Search for the voting margins in Utah's 3rd Congressional District (UT-03) over the last three elections (including Mike Kennedy's 2024 margin) and its PVI rating from the Cook Political Report. Are there any demographic shifts or redistricting risks that could threaten the Republican absolute dominance in 2026?

AI-powered analysis for: [Niche Market] Historical Frequency & Lean Verification: Search for the voting margins in Utah's 3rd Congressional District (UT-03) over the last three elections (including Mike Kennedy's 2024 margin) and its PVI rating from the Cook Political Report. Are there any demographic shifts or redistricting risks that could threaten the Republican absolute dominance in 2026?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: This is a long-term bet resolving in November 2026. If the odds for the 'Republican Party' are already high (e.g., over 90 cents), calculate whether the expected return from locking up capital for nearly two years is lower than the risk-free yield of US Treasuries or DeFi stablecoins over the same period.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: This is a long-term bet resolving in November 2026. If the odds for the 'Republican Party' are already high (e.g., over 90 cents), calculate whether the expected return from locking up capital for nearly two years is lower than the risk-free yield of US Treasuries or DeFi stablecoins over the same period.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

UT-03 House Election Winner

Elections|$316 Vol|

183 days 19 hrs

UT-03 House Election Winner - AI Found +40.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.28 02:08

Top Undervalued

+40.5¢

Democratic Party(No)

+40¢

Republican Party(Yes)

UT-03 House Election Winner AI analysis: • +40.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

UT-03 is an extremely conservative district in Utah (Cook PVI R+13). The core demographics make it v...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Democratic Party

YesNo

42.5¢

57.5¢

2¢

98¢

0¢

+40.5¢

Republican Party

YesNo

58¢

42¢

98¢

2¢

+40¢

0¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Divergence

Significant divergence exists. Mainstream political analysis (e.g., Cook Political Report) classifies UT-03 as a 'Safe Republican' seat, giving the GOP a near 100% chance of winning. However, the prediction market implies only an 82% probability for the Republicans. This divergence stems from low trading volume and retail speculation, failing to reflect objective political realities.