All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Nicolás Maduro
YesNo
Delcy Rodríguez
YesNo
No Head of State
YesNo
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
YesNo
Dinorah Figuera
YesNo
María Corina Machado
YesNo
Jorge Rodríguez
YesNo
Donald Trump
YesNo
Marco Rubio
YesNo
Pete Hegseth
YesNo
Edmundo González
YesNo
Vladimir Padrino López
YesNo
Frank Donovan
YesNo
Richard Grenell
YesNo
Dan Caine
YesNo
Evan Pettus
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 15:15 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The core logic remains unchanged; Delcy Rodríguez remains the most probable candidate for regime continuity. Although Maduro's price has seen some volatility (rebounding slightly to 15.5c), this is likely due to low liquidity or speculative buying rather than a fundamental improvement in his outlook. As the current Vice President, Delcy has the strongest legal claim to succession in Maduro's absence or during a transition. The main obstacle for MCM (13.5c) remains the 'inauguration lag': even if the opposition wins an election in late 2026, the Venezuelan constitution typically schedules inauguration for Jan 10 of the following year. This means that by Dec 31, 2026, she would likely be 'President-elect' rather than the 'Official Head of State'. Unless a drastic non-constitutional regime change occurs, it is difficult for MCM to officially take power before the deadline. 'No Head of State' remains a significant tail risk if the regime collapses without a clear successor.
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream Western media and some geopolitical analyses tend to view the Venezuelan political situation as highly unstable, highlighting MCM's massive popular support and the external pressure on the Maduro regime, suggesting a high probability of regime change. However, the prediction market (Delcy ~59c vs MCM ~13.5c) is coolly pricing in 'technical details': even if the opposition wins, the constitutional process makes a formal transfer of power unlikely before Dec 31, 2026. The market favors the incumbent Vice President Delcy to maintain the status quo through year-end, whereas media narratives focus more on the long-term trend of political change.
