All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Mark Warner
YesNo
Jason Reynolds
YesNo
AI Insights:
20 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Incumbent Senator Mark Warner has officially filed over 18,000 signatures (well above the 10,000 requirement) to qualify for the ballot and possesses overwhelming financial and political advantages. While Jason Reynolds has announced his candidacy and may appear on the ballot, he lacks the name recognition and infrastructure to pose a credible threat. The primary risk in this market is the date mismatch: the official Virginia Democratic primary is confirmed for August 4, 2026, while the market expires on June 16, 2026. Although a technical risk exists for an 'Other' resolution due to the expiration occurring before the event, prediction markets typically extend dates for major elections. Thus, Warner's fair value should reflect his near-certain victory (~99%), with the current 93-cent price discounting primarily for this structural timing risk.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
This market presents a severe 'rule trap' risk (Score 5). The critical clause is: 'If no... Primary takes place, this market will resolve to Other.' While incumbent Mark Warner is virtually guaranteed to win the nomination, Virginia electoral law/practice often dictates that if a primary is uncontested (only one qualified candidate), the election is canceled and the incumbent is declared the nominee by default. The challenger, Jason Reynolds, is a relatively unknown progressive who faces a high barrier to entry: submitting 10,000 valid signatures (400 per district) by April 2nd. If Reynolds fails to qualify—a highly probable scenario for a grassroots candidate—the primary will not physically take place. Consequently, the market would resolve to 'Other', causing a total loss for holders of 'Mark Warner' Yes shares, despite his nomination victory.
