Elections|$32.7k Vol|
49 days 5 hrsWest Bengal Legislative Assembly Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
AITC
YesNo
BJP
YesNo
INC
YesNo
CPI(M)
YesNo
BGPM
YesNo
CPI
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 00:39 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market has finally undergone a violent correction over the past week, with AITC surging from 67c to 80c+, validating the previous fair value assessment. Given AITC's 11-0 sweep in recent by-elections and polling data showing a double-digit vote share lead, their victory approaches a near-certainty (>90%). The collapse in BJP's price reflects the total loss of opposition momentum. While the current price of 82c is a significant correction, it remains slightly conservative for a dominant incumbent; fair value sits above 90c.
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Hedging
EPI
INDA
The election is primarily a contest between the incumbent AITC and the challenger BJP. A surprise victory or significant seat gain for the BJP would be viewed as a major political consolidation for the Modi government, likely triggering a rally in India-focused ETFs (e.g., INDA, EPI). An AITC victory, being the status quo, would likely be priced in with neutral impact. There is no correlation with US domestic assets like the S&P 500.
Movers
March 6, 2026 - March 11, 2026, BJP's price crashed from 29.5c to 12.5c (-17c), while AITC surged from 67.5c to 86.5c (+19c). The reason is a delayed valuation correction as the election dates (March-April) approach; the market capitulated on BJP 'upset' hedges and fully priced in AITC's dominance backed by by-election sweeps and polling leads.
Feb 9, 2026 - Feb 11, 2026, BJP's price dropped from 30c to 24c (-6c), while AITC rose modestly from 65.5c to 69c (+3.5c). The reason was the market slowly correcting its previous over-hedging on BJP, aligning with recent polling data confirming AITC's robust lead.
