April 18, 2026, the price of the 21°C option surged from 43c to 99.45c, and the 22°C option plummeted from 44.5c to 0.4c. This is because the local time in Tokyo had passed 5:00 PM, and the day's highest temperature was largely confirmed at 21°C, leading the market to price in the actual observed data. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of the 21°C option surged from 29c to 42.5c, and the 22°C option climbed from 12c to a peak of 26.5c, while the 19°C option plummeted from 23c to 5.5c. This was due to the nearing resolution date and updated weather forecasts indicating a significant warming trend on April 18, pushing expected highs to around 22°C.

Between April 18, 2026, 00:48 and April 18, 2026, 07:18, the Yes price for the 27°C option surged from 21.5c to 99.9c, while the 28°C option crashed to 0.2c after briefly rising to 30c. This is because as local time in Taipei progressed into the afternoon, the actual daily high temperature was established and locked at 27°C, eliminating the probability of higher temperatures. Between April 16 and April 17, 2026, the Yes price for the 24°C option plummeted from 28.5c to 10.5c, 21°C crashed from 14c to 0.25c, 22°C fell from 16.5c to 0.65c, and 29°C or higher dropped from 14.5c to 3.4c. This is primarily because as the target date approaches, weather forecast models have consolidated their projections around the 25°C-27°C range, significantly crushing the probabilities of outlier temperatures.

April 18, 2026 (05:08 to 07:18): The price of the 34°C option surged from 8.5c to 98.8c, while the 33°C option plummeted from 80c to 0.05c. The reason is that real-time temperature observations in Singapore during the afternoon reached the 34°C level, essentially locking in the result. April 16, 2026 - April 17, 2026: The price of the 34°C option plummeted from 50c to around 11c, while the 32°C option climbed from 20c to 35c, and the 33°C option rose from 20c to 33c. The reason is that as the date approaches, weather forecast models have become more precise for the maximum temperature on the 18th, ruling out the likelihood of an extreme 34°C high and converging expectations toward the typical 32-33°C range.

The title mentions 'Seoul', but the rules strictly use data from the Incheon International Airport Station (RKSI). Incheon is coastal and its temperatures often differ significantly from central Seoul, potentially misleading title-only bettors. Additionally, data is rounded to whole degrees Celsius.

Between April 17 and April 18, 2026, the price of the '24°C or higher' option surged from 45c to a peak of 64c before settling at 52.5c. This was driven by updated meteorological models closer to the resolution date, which confirmed expectations of a strong warming trend in the Seoul and Incheon areas.

The main risk involves interpreting diplomatic language. While the rules explicitly exclude temporary ceasefires, determining whether an agreement is truly 'permanent' or 'clearly signals a lasting end' can be subjective if the wording is ambiguous, or if one government claims a deal while the other remains vague.

A permanent US-Iran peace deal would significantly alleviate Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions, heavily impacting global energy markets. Crude oil prices would likely experience a sharp drop due to the removal of the war risk premium. Gold would also face downward pressure as safe-haven demand diminishes, while broader equity indices like the S&P 500 might see a moderate relief rally as macro uncertainty clears.

April 15, 2026 - April 17, 2026, the price of April 22 surged from 18.5c to 30.5c, and April 30 surged from 35.5c to 46.5c. This was caused by the continued spread of irrational speculative sentiment, as funds completely ignored realistic political hurdles and rule constraints, continuing to bid up the probability of a near-term peace deal. April 14, 2026 - April 16, 2026, multiple further-out options continued to climb, with June 30 rising from 62c to 70.5c, and May 31 soaring from 45.5c to 59.5c before settling at 55.5c. This was driven by persistent irrational bullish momentum, as funds continued to bet on extended peace while ignoring realistic political hurdles. April 13, 2026 - April 15, 2026, prices for multiple options continued to surge significantly: June 30 soared from 45.5c to 69.5c, May 31 from 34.5c to 59.5c, and April 30 from 23.5c to 35.5c. The reason is that momentum trading and irrational speculative sentiment regarding the recent temporary ceasefire have spiraled further out of control, completely ignoring the strict 'permanent peace' resolution criteria. April 12, 2026 - April 14, 2026, all options experienced massive surges: June 30 soared from 45.5c to 62c, May 31 from 27.5c to 45.5c, April 30 from 13.5c to 31.5c, and April 22 from 7.5c to 19.5c. The reason is the further fermentation of irrational speculative sentiment that the temporary ceasefire announced on April 7 might translate into a permanent deal. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of April 30 plummeted from 28c to 13.5c before rebounding to 23.5c; May 31 dropped from 44c to 27.5c and then rebounded to 34.5c. This extreme volatility reflects intense battles among speculative traders reacting to short-term news versus reality checks.

The prediction market implies a 75.5% probability that the US and Iran will reach a 'permanent peace deal' by June 30, which violently clashes with mainstream geopolitical consensus. Experts and media overwhelmingly agree that while tactical, temporary de-escalations or ceasefires may occur, the US and Iran have irreconcilable, deep-seated conflicts regarding core geostrategic interests, sanctions, and nuclear issues. Reaching a legally binding treaty that permanently ends hostilities within a few months is highly unrealistic. The market is completely mispricing temporary detente as permanent peace.