What price will Bitcoin hit on April 19? - AI Found +34.7¢ Mispricing

Crypto|$40.6k Vol|

19 hrs 10 mins

What price will Bitcoin hit on April 19? - AI Found +34.7¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+34.7¢

↓ 74,000(Yes)

+27.5¢

↓ 73,000(Yes)

+16.4¢

↑ 76,000(No)

What price will Bitcoin hit on April 19? AI analysis: • +34.7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$950.1k Vol|

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 2 days until the April 21 deadline, the Yes price remains elevated at 20c due to hedg...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

There is a significant rule trap. Even if hostilities actually resume or actions inconsistent with the ceasefire occur (e.g., closing a strait), the market will resolve to 'No' unless the US government or Trump explicitly labels it a 'breach' or 'violation' of the ceasefire in their statement. Additionally, breaches solely attributed to Israel do not qualify.

This is a geopolitical prediction. While US-Iran conflicts are common macro topics, betting on whether a ceasefire breaks within a specific tight window, contingent strictly on the 'official phrasing' of the announcement, adds a level of novelty and specific conditional constraints.

An official announcement that the US-Iran ceasefire has broken would trigger severe market panic. Crude Oil prices would experience a structural spike due to Middle East geopolitical risks and supply disruption threats. Safe-haven assets like Gold and US Treasuries (driving the US 10Y Yield down) would see aggressive bidding. Concurrently, risk assets like the S&P 500 would face a massive downward shock.

2026-04-18 to 2026-04-18, the Yes price of the April 21 option surged from 7.5c to 22.5c. The reason is a sudden escalation in Middle East tensions triggering strong tail-risk hedging demand, leading to a sharp rise in expectations of a ceasefire breach. 2026-04-14 to 2026-04-17, the Yes price of the April 21 option continuously plummeted from 28.5c down to 7c. The reason is that as the deadline rapidly approaches without any official statements from the US or Trump regarding a ceasefire breach, accelerating time decay has significantly eroded the risk premium. 2026-04-12 to 2026-04-14, the Yes price of the (now expired) April 14 option plummeted from 22.5c to 1.2c due to the extreme proximity to its deadline without any official announcements, causing the market to heavily discount the likelihood of a sudden incident.

Explain the exact resolution criteria for this US-Iran ceasefire market, specifically clarifying why informal leaks or actions like 'Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz' without an explicit breach label will not trigger a 'Yes'.

Culture|$6.9m Vol|

Elon Musk # tweets April 14 - April 21, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With roughly 2 days remaining until resolution, expectations for Musk's total post count are heavily...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The rules exclude general replies but include 'main feed replies' and deleted tweets captured within 5 minutes. Since the market heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) rather than simply looking at his official X profile count, this creates potential discrepancies and moderate resolution risks.

Predicting the exact number of posts an individual makes during a specific week is highly entertaining and niche. The general public rarely thinks about or tracks such trivial data points.

2026-04-18 to 2026-04-19, the price of the 220-239 option climbed from 4.5c to 21.0c, as a noticeable slowdown in posting volume over the weekend significantly increased the likelihood of the final total falling into a lower bracket. 2026-04-16 to 2026-04-19, the price of the 240-259 option climbed from 13.5c to 32.0c, as a recent slight slowdown in posting volume significantly increased the likelihood of the final total falling into this lower bracket. 2026-04-16 to 2026-04-19, the price of the 260-279 option climbed from 15.5c to 30.5c and stabilized around 28.5c, as Musk's actual posting pace highly matched the daily average required for this range over time, making it one of the most likely outcomes. 2026-04-15 to 2026-04-19, the price of the 280-299 option surged from 14.5c to a peak of 24.5c before falling back to 18.5c. This was due to a temporary spike in posting frequency that pushed expectations higher, followed by a slight slowdown that caused a pullback.

What is Elon Musk's average weekly tweet count (strictly main feed, quotes, and reposts) over the past year, and which of the current option brackets does it historically fall into most often?

Crypto|$16.1k Vol|

621 days 20 hrs

Will o1 launch a token by ___?

Top Undervalued

September 30, 2026(No)

June 30, 2026(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

For cumulative 'launch by [Date]' markets, the probability must strictly and monotonically increase ...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This is a niche market question regarding a token launch for a specific derivatives DEX project. o1 exchange is not as widely known as major L1s or DeFi giants, making it a rather obscure topic for the general public, relevant mostly to specific DeFi insiders.

Retrieve the latest information on o1 Exchange, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the Order Book (Volume: $5941) and bid-ask spreads for 2026/2027 options, and assessing user discussions to determine if current odds reflect the project's actual development activity and liquidity risks.

Culture|$20.0k Vol|

American Idol Season 24 Winner

Top Undervalued

Hannah Harper(No)

Jordan McCullough(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The sum of all 'Yes' prices in the current market is still around 188%, indicating premium and somew...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

From April 1, 2026 to April 4, 2026, the price of Braden Rumfelt surged from 6.5c to 23.05c, likely due to standout performances in recent competition rounds and high praise from the judges, leading to a massive increase in market expectations. From April 1, 2026 to April 3, 2026, the price of Brooks Rosser dropped from 24.5c to 14.5c, but rebounded to 20c on April 4, reflecting high volatility in voter support and the impact of strengthening competitors during this phase.

Retrieve the latest Polymarket page data for 'American Idol Season 24 Winner' to confirm the extremely low liquidity status (Volume: $1.03), and synthesize user discussions from r/AmericanIdol or GoldDerby to reassess the fair value and early arbitrage opportunities for top contenders like Brenna Brigman or Abayomi in the absence of efficient order book pricing.

Economy|$17.7k Vol|

Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?

Top Undervalued

1.9%–2.2%(No)

1.1%–1.4%(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Current market prices show the 'yes' price for 1.5%–1.8% at 0.595, while 1.1%–1.4% is at 0.26 and 0....

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This event directly drives the pricing of Brazilian domestic financial assets. If the GDP data deviates significantly from expectations, it will cause tradable volatility (Score 3) in ETFs tracking the Brazilian stock market (e.g., EWZ) and impact core weighted stocks like Petrobras (PBR). Although Brazil is a major resource nation, a single quarter's GDP figure is usually insufficient to cause a structural shock to global commodity prices (e.g., Crude Oil).

April 5, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 1.9%–2.2% option surged from 11c to 22c, likely due to a slight adjustment in economic growth expectations or large purchases. April 5, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the ≥2.7% option surged from 7c to 24c, indicating increased speculative betting on unexpectedly high growth. Prior to March 24, 2026, prices across all options exhibited an unnatural static distribution (around 0.50), indicating a lack of liquidity or a malfunction in market-making algorithms.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the thin order book (given the low $1080 volume), and synthesize it with recent IBGE monthly economic indicators to update the assessment of fair value and slippage risks for specific GDP growth intervals (e.g., 1.5%–1.8%).

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

↓ 74,000

YesNo

35¢

67¢

69.7¢

30.3¢

+34.7¢

0¢

↓ 73,000

YesNo

11¢

90¢

38.5¢

61.5¢

+27.5¢

0¢

Expand to view all 16 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Positive Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, 0.0050, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Positive Factor 2: Distance to Yesterday Low Ratio, 0.0040, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday support test: distance of price relative to yesterday low Positive Factor 3: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Positive Factor 4: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, 0.0190, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Positive Factor 5: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0320, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range Negative Factor 1: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0040, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days)

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$950.1k Vol|

Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire broken by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 2 days until the April 21 deadline, the Yes price remains elevated at 20c due to hedg...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

There is a significant rule trap. Even if hostilities actually resume or actions inconsistent with the ceasefire occur (e.g., closing a strait), the market will resolve to 'No' unless the US government or Trump explicitly labels it a 'breach' or 'violation' of the ceasefire in their statement. Additionally, breaches solely attributed to Israel do not qualify.

This is a geopolitical prediction. While US-Iran conflicts are common macro topics, betting on whether a ceasefire breaks within a specific tight window, contingent strictly on the 'official phrasing' of the announcement, adds a level of novelty and specific conditional constraints.

An official announcement that the US-Iran ceasefire has broken would trigger severe market panic. Crude Oil prices would experience a structural spike due to Middle East geopolitical risks and supply disruption threats. Safe-haven assets like Gold and US Treasuries (driving the US 10Y Yield down) would see aggressive bidding. Concurrently, risk assets like the S&P 500 would face a massive downward shock.

2026-04-18 to 2026-04-18, the Yes price of the April 21 option surged from 7.5c to 22.5c. The reason is a sudden escalation in Middle East tensions triggering strong tail-risk hedging demand, leading to a sharp rise in expectations of a ceasefire breach. 2026-04-14 to 2026-04-17, the Yes price of the April 21 option continuously plummeted from 28.5c down to 7c. The reason is that as the deadline rapidly approaches without any official statements from the US or Trump regarding a ceasefire breach, accelerating time decay has significantly eroded the risk premium. 2026-04-12 to 2026-04-14, the Yes price of the (now expired) April 14 option plummeted from 22.5c to 1.2c due to the extreme proximity to its deadline without any official announcements, causing the market to heavily discount the likelihood of a sudden incident.

Explain the exact resolution criteria for this US-Iran ceasefire market, specifically clarifying why informal leaks or actions like 'Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz' without an explicit breach label will not trigger a 'Yes'.

Culture|$6.9m Vol|

Elon Musk # tweets April 14 - April 21, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With roughly 2 days remaining until resolution, expectations for Musk's total post count are heavily...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The rules exclude general replies but include 'main feed replies' and deleted tweets captured within 5 minutes. Since the market heavily relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker) rather than simply looking at his official X profile count, this creates potential discrepancies and moderate resolution risks.

Predicting the exact number of posts an individual makes during a specific week is highly entertaining and niche. The general public rarely thinks about or tracks such trivial data points.

2026-04-18 to 2026-04-19, the price of the 220-239 option climbed from 4.5c to 21.0c, as a noticeable slowdown in posting volume over the weekend significantly increased the likelihood of the final total falling into a lower bracket. 2026-04-16 to 2026-04-19, the price of the 240-259 option climbed from 13.5c to 32.0c, as a recent slight slowdown in posting volume significantly increased the likelihood of the final total falling into this lower bracket. 2026-04-16 to 2026-04-19, the price of the 260-279 option climbed from 15.5c to 30.5c and stabilized around 28.5c, as Musk's actual posting pace highly matched the daily average required for this range over time, making it one of the most likely outcomes. 2026-04-15 to 2026-04-19, the price of the 280-299 option surged from 14.5c to a peak of 24.5c before falling back to 18.5c. This was due to a temporary spike in posting frequency that pushed expectations higher, followed by a slight slowdown that caused a pullback.

What is Elon Musk's average weekly tweet count (strictly main feed, quotes, and reposts) over the past year, and which of the current option brackets does it historically fall into most often?

Crypto|$16.1k Vol|

621 days 20 hrs

Will o1 launch a token by ___?

Top Undervalued

September 30, 2026(No)

June 30, 2026(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

For cumulative 'launch by [Date]' markets, the probability must strictly and monotonically increase ...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This is a niche market question regarding a token launch for a specific derivatives DEX project. o1 exchange is not as widely known as major L1s or DeFi giants, making it a rather obscure topic for the general public, relevant mostly to specific DeFi insiders.

Retrieve the latest information on o1 Exchange, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the Order Book (Volume: $5941) and bid-ask spreads for 2026/2027 options, and assessing user discussions to determine if current odds reflect the project's actual development activity and liquidity risks.

Culture|$20.0k Vol|

American Idol Season 24 Winner

Top Undervalued

Hannah Harper(No)

Jordan McCullough(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The sum of all 'Yes' prices in the current market is still around 188%, indicating premium and somew...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

From April 1, 2026 to April 4, 2026, the price of Braden Rumfelt surged from 6.5c to 23.05c, likely due to standout performances in recent competition rounds and high praise from the judges, leading to a massive increase in market expectations. From April 1, 2026 to April 3, 2026, the price of Brooks Rosser dropped from 24.5c to 14.5c, but rebounded to 20c on April 4, reflecting high volatility in voter support and the impact of strengthening competitors during this phase.

Retrieve the latest Polymarket page data for 'American Idol Season 24 Winner' to confirm the extremely low liquidity status (Volume: $1.03), and synthesize user discussions from r/AmericanIdol or GoldDerby to reassess the fair value and early arbitrage opportunities for top contenders like Brenna Brigman or Abayomi in the absence of efficient order book pricing.

Economy|$17.7k Vol|

Brazil GDP Growth in Q1 2026?

Top Undervalued

1.9%–2.2%(No)

1.1%–1.4%(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Current market prices show the 'yes' price for 1.5%–1.8% at 0.595, while 1.1%–1.4% is at 0.26 and 0....

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This event directly drives the pricing of Brazilian domestic financial assets. If the GDP data deviates significantly from expectations, it will cause tradable volatility (Score 3) in ETFs tracking the Brazilian stock market (e.g., EWZ) and impact core weighted stocks like Petrobras (PBR). Although Brazil is a major resource nation, a single quarter's GDP figure is usually insufficient to cause a structural shock to global commodity prices (e.g., Crude Oil).

April 5, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 1.9%–2.2% option surged from 11c to 22c, likely due to a slight adjustment in economic growth expectations or large purchases. April 5, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the ≥2.7% option surged from 7c to 24c, indicating increased speculative betting on unexpectedly high growth. Prior to March 24, 2026, prices across all options exhibited an unnatural static distribution (around 0.50), indicating a lack of liquidity or a malfunction in market-making algorithms.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the thin order book (given the low $1080 volume), and synthesize it with recent IBGE monthly economic indicators to update the assessment of fair value and slippage risks for specific GDP growth intervals (e.g., 1.5%–1.8%).

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