Based on the latest market pricing and weather forecasts, the highest temperature at SFO on March 28...

March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026, the price of '72-73°F' dropped from 27.5c to 5.5c and then surged to 30.5c, reflecting the intraday forecast volatility regarding expected cloud cover burning off. March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026, the price of '68-69°F' plummeted from 28c to 5.5c due to updated forecasts showing a higher chance of temperatures exceeding 70°F. Morning of March 26, 2026 - Noon of March 26, 2026, the price of '72-73°F' surged from 13.5c to 28.5c, driven by updated weather models showing higher expected temperatures for the day. Early March 25, 2026 - Afternoon of March 25, 2026, the price of '74°F or higher' crashed from 38c to 11.5c, then rebounded to 25c on the 26th, reflecting the volatility in temperature forecasts due to shifting air masses. March 24, 2026 - Afternoon of March 25, 2026, the price of '66-67°F' plummeted from 22c to 6.5c as new data indicated temperatures would stay significantly warmer than the previously expected cooling trend.

Based on the latest prediction market data, the Yes price for the 48-49°F option is currently the hi...

March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026, the price of the 52-53°F option dropped from 11.5c to 5.1c, as the approaching settlement and weather forecasts further confirmed the high temperature is unlikely to reach this level. March 26, 2026 - March 28, 2026, the price of the 48-49°F option surged from 23.5c to 38c, as the latest meteorological data pinpointed this range as the most probable high temperature. March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of the 46-47°F option surged from 16c to 26c, due to narrowing forecast temperature ranges increasing the probability of this interval. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the 54-55°F option plummeted from 25c to 5.5c, as weather forecasts increasingly ruled out the possibility of reaching this higher temperature. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026, the price of the 43°F or below option plummeted from 22.5c to 4.1c (at its lowest), due to diminishing expectations of extreme cold from the incoming cold front. March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of the 56-57°F option dropped from 17c to 4.3c, further reflecting the exclusion of unusually warm weather.

According to the latest weather forecasts (e.g., AccuWeather, Time and Date), the highest temperatur...

While weather prediction markets are somewhat common on prediction platforms (a niche category), betting on the daily high temperature of a specific Brazilian city on a specific day remains quite unconventional for the general public.

March 25, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the price of the 30°C option surged from 17.5c to 35.5c, as updated meteorological models revised the expected maximum temperature for this weekend upwards from the initial 28-29°C to around 30°C.

As the resolution date (March 28, 2026) is imminent, weather forecast models have further converged....

This is a typical weather prediction market. While weather is a common topic, betting on the exact daily high temperature for a specific city on a specific date is a somewhat niche category—neither mainstream (like elections) nor absurd.

March 27, 2026 - March 28, 2026, the price of the 54-55°F option climbed from 36.5c to 46.5c, as the latest meteorological models further locked the expected high temperature into this range closer to the resolution date. March 26, 2026 - March 27, 2026, the 52-53°F option fluctuated from 25c to 15.5c, as the probability of temperatures falling below 54°F decreased in updated forecasts over time. March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026: The price of the 58-59°F option plummeted from 27c to 8.5c, as updated meteorological models gradually ruled out the possibility of warmer temperatures closer to the resolution date. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The 56-57°F option surged from 17.5c to a peak of 37c, driven by short-term weather models converging the expected high temperature tightly around this range. March 24, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The 64-65°F option crashed from 16.5c to 1.65c, as forecasts conclusively showed no anomalous warming trend for the weekend, causing the market to price out extreme high-temperature scenarios.

With only a few hours left until resolution (currently 07:42 UTC, morning in Paris), the day's high ...

From Mar 26 to Mar 27, 2026, the price of 11°C surged from 27.5c to a peak of 49.5c, while 12°C dropped from 28.5c to 18.5c. This occurred because, as the resolution date approached, updated real-time weather data and short-term forecasts trended closer to 11°C, ruling out the likelihood of temperatures reaching 12°C or higher. From Mar 25 to Mar 26, 2026, the price of 10°C surged from 25.5c to a peak of 38.5c before settling at 28.5c. This influx of capital was likely driven by short-term downward revisions in some weather models. From Mar 25 to Mar 26, 2026, the price of 12°C tumbled from 25c to 12c before recovering slightly to 15.5c. This mirrors the surge in the 10°C option, reflecting traders adjusting positions amid uncertainty over minor temperature fluctuations near resolution. From Mar 24 to Mar 25, 2026, the price of 9°C plunged from a high of 26.5c down to 7.5c, as the approaching date allowed forecasts to confidently stabilize in the 11°C-12°C range, ruling out unusually cold outliers.