What price will Bitcoin hit on May 1?
Crypto|$20.5k Vol|
time21 hrs 9 mins

What price will Bitcoin hit on May 1? - AI Found +21.6¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+21.6¢
↑ 78,000(Yes)
+15.6¢
↑ 79,000(Yes)
+1.3¢
↓ 76,000(No)

What price will Bitcoin hit on May 1? AI analysis: • +21.6¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 1?
Weather|$14.7k Vol|
time5 hrs 9 mins

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 1?

Top Undervalued
+2.1¢
12°C(No)
+1.4¢
11°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest real-time data from Wunderground, the temperature at 3:20 AM JST on May 1 was 54...
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Exotics
This is a relatively niche weather prediction market. While weather forecasts are a common part of daily life, predicting the exact lowest temperature at a specific weather station on a single day is not a conventional topic of public interest.
Movers
April 30, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of the 12°C option skyrocketed from 10.5c to 97.5c. This is because as May 1 arrived, real-time weather observations (Wunderground showed early morning lows around 54°F, or ~12.2°C) made this range a near certainty. April 30, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of the 11°C option initially surged from 8.5c to 80.6c, before collapsing to 1.7c. This occurred because earlier forecasts suggested a colder dip, but as real-time temperatures stabilized at 12°C, the probability of 11°C dropped to near zero.
AI Analysis
Explain in the simplest terms: what are the exact resolution criteria (like the Wunderground data source and Celsius rounding rules) and win/loss conditions for this prediction market on Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 1?
Highest temperature in London on May 1?
Weather|$110.1k Vol|
time5 hrs 9 mins

Highest temperature in London on May 1?

Top Undervalued
+4¢
23°C(No)
+2.5¢
25°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The settlement day has arrived, with less than half a day until expiration. Today's weather forecast...
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Movers
April 29, 2026 - May 1, 2026: The price of the 24°C option surged from 32.5c to 53.5c, while the 26°C option plummeted from 21c to around 2c. This is because, as the settlement day arrives, weather forecasts have highly converged, confirming 24°C as the most likely highest temperature for the day. This further rules out the possibility of higher extremes like 26°C, causing capital to accelerate its concentration on 24°C.
AI Analysis
Explain in the simplest terms (ELI5) the Wunderground resolution criteria and win/loss conditions for the May 1st London highest temperature market.
Highest temperature in Paris on May 1?
Weather|$56.2k Vol|
time5 hrs 9 mins

Highest temperature in Paris on May 1?

Top Undervalued
+12¢
24°C(Yes)
+9¢
25°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest trading price trends and historical information, market participants are highly ...
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Movers
From 21:03 on April 30 to 01:23 on May 1, 2026, the price of the 24°C option surged from 19.5c to 32c, while the 25°C option fell from 54.5c to 40.5c. The reason is that the latest meteorological observations just before expiration showed actual temperatures were highly likely closer to 24°C, causing market expectations to shift rapidly toward 24°C and cooling off earlier higher expectations. From 14:33 to 17:48 on April 30, 2026, the price of the 24°C option surged from 21c to 32.5c, while the 26°C option plummeted from 33.5c to 20.5c. This is primarily because, as the expiration date approaches, updated short-term weather forecasts have revised the expected maximum temperature downwards, ruling out the likelihood of extreme heat (26°C and above) and concentrating market expectations on the 24°C-25°C range.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution rules for the highest temperature in Paris on May 1st simply, especially regarding how the Wunderground data for Le Bourget Airport is read and the whole-degree Celsius precision.
Lowest temperature in NYC on May 1?
Weather|$13.1k Vol|
time5 hrs 9 mins

Lowest temperature in NYC on May 1?

Top Undervalued
+2.5¢
44-45°F(Yes)
+2¢
48-49°F(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As the date approaches, weather forecasts for the minimum temperature at New York's LaGuardia Airpor...
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Movers
April 30, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of the 48-49°F option retreated from 54c to 32c, while the 50-51°F option temporarily spiked to ~22c before falling back to 5c. This was due to a short-lived divergence in forecast models regarding the intensity of a cold front, which quickly reconverged. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026, the price of the 42-43°F option plummeted from 21c to under 1c, and the 44-45°F option fell from 26c to 8c, as updated meteorological data ruled out the possibility of extreme low temperatures.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria and win/loss conditions for the NYC May 1 lowest temperature event, specifically the Wunderground KLGA data finalization, using the simplest language.
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?
Culture|$63.1k Vol|
time1 days 17 hrs

Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3?

Top Undervalued
+1.6¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The official results for the February 2026 California Bar Exam will be released on May 1, 2026, at 6...
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Exotics
This is a typical celebrity lifestyle bet. While Kim Kardashian's law studies are well-publicized news, this crossover between pop culture and a professional licensing exam carries a degree of novelty and entertainment value, distinguishing it from traditional political or financial forecasting.
Movers
From April 30, 2026 to April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' plummeted from 25.4c to 1.8c. This drastic drop occurred because the result release date (May 1) was imminent, and speculative buyers rapidly liquidated their positions to avoid the high risk of holding through the actual result announcement without any concrete evidence of her passing, driving the price down to reflect her realistically slim chances. From April 29, 2026 to April 30, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' surged wildly from 1.2c to 25.4c before falling back. This was driven by a massive influx of speculative capital attempting to front-run the imminent May 1 result release date.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the 'Kim Kardashian pass the bar' event to analyze the Order Book and recent trade volume ($32k). Specifically, look for any panic selling of 'Yes' shares or insider 'No' accumulations around late February (exam dates) to assess if the market believes she skipped the February 2026 exam.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
↑ 78,000
YesNo
40¢
62¢
61.6¢
38.4¢
+21.6¢
0¢
↑ 79,000
YesNo
12¢
89¢
27.6¢
72.4¢
+15.6¢
0¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0010, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Positive Factor 2: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Positive Factor 3: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0870, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range Negative Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, -0.0060, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Negative Factor 2: Distance to Yesterday High Ratio, -0.0020, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday resistance test: distance of price relative to yesterday high Negative Factor 3: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, -0.0100, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average

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