What price will Ethereum hit on April 14?
Crypto|$14.3k Vol|
time15 hrs 22 mins

What price will Ethereum hit on April 14? - AI Found +29.7¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:
Top Undervalued
+29.7¢
↑ 2,500(Yes)
+29.3¢
↑ 2,400(Yes)
+25.9¢
↓ 2,300(No)

What price will Ethereum hit on April 14? AI analysis: • +29.7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

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Bahrain Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish
Sports|$103.5k Vol|
time5 days 2 hrs

Bahrain Grand Prix: Driver Podium Finish

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
Charles Leclerc(Yes)
Arbitrage Opportunity
2¢
Arbitrage
384%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' shares for options where the No price is below 50c (e.g., Valtteri Bottas at 47.5c). Since the market will resolve at 50c, any purchase cost below 50c will yield a risk-free profit. Plan Description: Since the event is permanently cancelled and rules explicitly dictate a 50-50 resolution, every Yes ...
🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Due to the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix has been official...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Movers
April 12, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the 'Yes' prices for multiple drivers including Pierre Gasly, Fernando Alonso, Alexander Albon, Gabriel Bortoleto, Valtteri Bottas, and Esteban Ocon spiked from 50c to 70c-73.5c, before falling back to around 51c-52c. This was likely caused by traders unaware of the official race cancellation and the 50-50 resolution rule, making irrational speculative buys before arbitrageurs corrected the prices back towards 50c. March 27, 2026 - March 29, 2026, Gabriel Bortoleto's price plunged from 58c to 43c before recovering to 50c. This was due to random speculative trades in a highly illiquid market. March 27, 2026 - March 29, 2026, Pierre Gasly's price spiked from 46c to 56c, then dropped back to 50c, also primarily driven by chaotic fluctuations lacking real liquidity.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest pre-race information for the 2026 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix (including car testing and qualifying performance), visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth and user discussions for each driver, and update the assessment of fair value, arbitrage opportunities, and risks for a podium finish.
CA-38 House Election Winner
Elections|$47.3k Vol|
time202 days 11 hrs

CA-38 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(Yes)
+5.5¢
Republican Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
CA-38 is a solid deep-blue district (Cook PVI D+14) with a predominantly working-class Latino demogr...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth for CA-38, considering the ~$20k volume—is the bid/ask spread too wide? Simultaneously, retrieve the status of the incumbent (e.g., Linda Sánchez) and district demographic shifts to assess if the current odds fairly reflect the fundamental 'Safe Democrat' nature of the seat.
Arizona Governor Republican Primary Winner
Politics|$63.6k Vol|
time111 days 11 hrs

Arizona Governor Republican Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+2.5¢
Andy Biggs(Yes)
+0.5¢
Karrin Taylor Robson(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Andy Biggs continues to hold an absolute lead as the presumptive nominee for the Republican primary....
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket 'Arizona Governor Republican Primary Winner' page to analyze the current order book depth for David Schweikert, Karrin Taylor Robson, and Andy Biggs. Assess whether the current odds reflect the latest filing status and endorsement news (especially regarding Trump), and identify any liquidity traps or mispricing given the $17k volume.
TX-11 House Election Winner
Elections|$23.5k Vol|
time202 days 11 hrs

TX-11 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+8.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
+5.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
TX-11 (Texas's 11th Congressional District), located in the Permian Basin, remains one of the safest...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'TX-11 House Election Winner'. Given the extremely low volume of $638, analyze the bid-ask spread and order depth. Is the current Republican price distorted from its 'Safe Red' fair value due to illiquidity, and does this create a mispricing arbitrage opportunity?
Elon Musk # tweets April 13 - April 15, 2026?
Culture|$514.6k Vol|
time1 days 3 hrs

Elon Musk # tweets April 13 - April 15, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+17.5¢
40-64(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
0.25¢
Arbitrage
9.12%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes for all options Plan Description: The sum of Yes prices for all options is currently 99.75c, while exactly one option will resolve to ...
🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market pricing and current progress with about a day left until settlement, Musk...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Rule Risk
Relying on a specific tracker (xtracker) introduces technical risks, such as missing quickly deleted tweets or misclassifying main-feed replies. Although X is a fallback, discrepancies between automated tracker data and manual counting often cause resolution disputes.
Exotics
Betting on the exact number of tweets a specific individual makes in a random 48-hour window is a highly niche, novelty market driven by pure degency rather than conventional public interest.
Movers
April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 90-114 option surged from 13.5c to 32c (then fell to 22.5c), as the market observed a significant increase in posting frequency, pushing up volume expectations. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 40-64 option plummeted from 29c to 12.5c (rebounding to 20.5c), due to the market observing an increase in his recent tweeting frequency, leading to a sharp drop in expectations for lower tweet counts. April 11, 2026 - April 14, 2026, the price of the 115-139 option surged from 2.5c to 15.45c (before settling at 8.2c), as his activity spiked and the market began betting on higher posting volumes. April 11, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the price of the 65-89 option plummeted from 50.5c to 35.5c (rebounding to 44.5c), as capital rotated to higher-tier options.
AI Analysis
Based on Elon Musk's historical X (Twitter) data over the past year, what is the average number of posts he makes within a 48-hour window, and how often does it exceed 240 posts?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
↑ 2,500
YesNo
7.5¢
92.5¢
37.2¢
62.8¢
+29.7¢
0¢
↑ 2,400
YesNo
70¢
34¢
99.3¢
0.7¢
+29.3¢
0¢

Expand to view all 14 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
AI Insights & Reasoning:
Positive Factor 1: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0550, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Positive Factor 2: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0170, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Positive Factor 3: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, 0.0630, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Positive Factor 4: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0580, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range Negative Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, -0.0010, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP

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