What price will Ethereum hit on May 13? - AI Found +16.5¢ Mispricing

Crypto|$16.4k Vol|

7 hrs 0 mins

What price will Ethereum hit on May 13? - AI Found +16.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+16.5¢

↓ 2,200(Yes)

+2¢

↑ 2,350(No)

+1.9¢

↓ 2,150(Yes)

What price will Ethereum hit on May 13? AI analysis: • +16.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Geopolitics|$2.1m Vol|

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Top Undervalued

December 31, 2026(No)

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' on 'December 31, 2026' Plan Description: Currently, the 'No' price for 'December 31, 2026' is 87c. Considering the extremely low probability ...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

The fundamental territorial and security conflicts between Israel and Syria, particularly concerning...

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This is a case of extreme rule conflict. The title asks 'by...?' implying a multiple-choice date question, and the options list dates in 2026 (Dec 31 and June 30). However, the specific Rule text explicitly states the market resolves to 'No' if relations aren't established by Dec 31, 2025. This mismatch—where the rule defines a binary Yes/No for 2025 but the options are 2026 dates—creates massive potential for settlement disputes and user confusion.

While Middle East geopolitics is a common topic, Syria (the Assad regime) remains a core member of the Iranian-aligned 'Axis of Resistance' and is officially in a state of war with Israel. Although there is a trend of Arab nations normalizing ties with Syria, a leap directly to Israel-Syria normalization is a highly bold and unconventional prediction, sitting outside the norms of standard geopolitical forecasting.

If Israel and Syria were to announce diplomatic relations, it would represent a drastic restructuring of the Middle East geopolitical landscape (Score 4-5), implying a massive reduction in Iranian influence or a sudden de-escalation of regional tensions. Such a 'black swan' event would likely cause crude oil prices to plunge (as war risk premiums evaporate) and boost risk sentiment in the region. It serves as a significant geopolitical hedge.

Mainstream international relations experts and media universally consider the probability of Israel-Syria diplomatic normalization in the short term to be effectively zero. However, the prediction market still implies a 13% probability for December 31, 2026. This divergence does not stem from informational differences in the real world, but rather from a lack of sufficient capital willing to tie up funds shorting the market (buying 'No') to flatten the price, leaving the long-tail odds overpriced by irrational buying.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest geopolitical developments regarding 'Israel-Syria normalization,' and combining this with the $1.68M trading volume and order book depth, assess whether the current odds accurately reflect the diplomatic possibilities following Syrian regime shifts (e.g., potential post-Assad scenarios), or if they are simply priced based on historical inertia.

World|$706.6k Vol|

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' and hold until resolution Plan Description: Since the likelihood of a direct military clash between China and Japan before the end of 2026 (meet...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

The 'Yes' price is hovering around 8.5c. The fundamentals remain unchanged: both China and Japan are...

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The critical risk lies in the asymmetric definition of the China Coast Guard (CCG) versus the Japan Coast Guard (JCG). The rules explicitly state CCG is part of the military, while JCG is not. A clash between CCG and JCG creates ambiguity regarding whether it counts as a 'military encounter'. Additionally, while the exclusion of 'non-violent actions' is clear, the criteria for 'intentional ship ramming' resulting in 'significant damage' (versus minor scrapes) introduces subjectivity, especially in gray-zone conflicts involving para-military forces.

A direct military clash between China and Japan, even a limited skirmish, would represent a major breakdown of the post-WWII East Asian order, constituting a classic 'Black Swan' event. Gold, as the ultimate safe haven, would spike immediately (Score 5). Global equities (S&P 500) would crash due to panic selling, as this involves the world's 2nd and 4th largest economies and potential US involvement. US Treasury yields would likely fall initially due to a flight to safety. While the Yen is usually a safe haven, an attack on Japan itself might weaken it, making the DXY (US Dollar Index) a more reliable hedge. Crude Oil would likely rise due to supply chain disruption fears.

Culture|$14.1m Vol|

GTA VI released before June 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on Take-Two's official guidance, the GTA VI release window is firmly locked to Fall 2026. With...

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This event is a structural mover for Take-Two Interactive (TTWO). With the recent Feb 2026 earnings call confirming a delay to Nov 19, 2026, a 'No' outcome is priced in. However, an unexpected 'Yes' (release before June) would be a massive shock, sending TTWO stock soaring. Console makers like Sony (SONY) and Microsoft (MSFT) are moderately correlated due to hardware sales cycles, alongside peripheral makers like Turtle Beach (HEAR).

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for "GTA VI released before June 2026?", analyze the order book depth and recent whale activities, and combine this with the official tone from Take-Two's latest earnings call to reassess if the current price adequately reflects the risk of a delay from the "Fall 2025" window to late 2026.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for "GTA VI released before June 2026?", analyze the order book depth and recent whale activities, and combine this with the official tone from Take-Two's latest earnings call to reassess if the current price adequately reflects the risk of a delay from the "Fall 2025" window to late 2026.

Weather|$13.9k Vol|

Highest temperature in Chicago on May 15?

Top Undervalued

74°F or higher(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest weather forecasts (including NWS and commercial weather services), the high temp...

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There is a notable divergence. The National Weather Service (NWS) explicitly forecasts a high near 78°F for Chicago on May 15, and other outlets like AccuWeather also predict 74-75°F or higher. However, the prediction market only prices the '74°F or higher' option at 37.5%, reflecting a conservative market sentiment or information lag regarding the expected warming.

How exactly is the highest temperature at Chicago O'Hare verified on Wunderground, and will it affect the resolution if the data is revised after being finalized?

Weather|$10.8k Vol|

Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport (RJTT) on...

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Betting on the precise daily high temperature of a specific city is a relatively niche segment in prediction markets. While weather forecasting has a professional market, the general public rarely bets on such daily meteorological details.

How does Wunderground record and finalize the maximum daily temperature for Tokyo Haneda Airport (RJTT), and are there any risks of data delays or halted updates for market resolution?

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

↓ 2,200

YesNo

5.2¢

98.7¢

21.7¢

78.3¢

+16.5¢

0¢

↑ 2,350

YesNo

2¢

98¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+2¢

Expand to view all 12 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Negative Factor 1: VWAP Deviation Rate, -0.0000, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday average cost: percentage deviation of price relative to intraday VWAP Negative Factor 2: Hourly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0110, Impact-Intense, Factor description Intraday trend direction: deviation of price relative to the 60-hour moving average (~2.5 days) Negative Factor 3: Hourly MA20 Deviation Rate, -0.0050, Impact-Strong, Factor description Institutional control indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-hour moving average Negative Factor 4: Daily MA10 Deviation Rate, -0.0210, Impact-Strong, Factor description Short-term defense line: deviation of price relative to the 10-day moving average Negative Factor 5: Intraday Volatility Exhaustion Rate, 0.0490, Impact-Medium, Factor description Volatility exhaustion: today range relative to the 14-day average range

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Geopolitics|$2.1m Vol|

Israel and Syria normalize relations by...?

Top Undervalued

December 31, 2026(No)

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No' on 'December 31, 2026' Plan Description: Currently, the 'No' price for 'December 31, 2026' is 87c. Considering the extremely low probability ...

🔓 Log in to see more

Undervalued Options Insights:

The fundamental territorial and security conflicts between Israel and Syria, particularly concerning...

🔓 Log in to see more

This is a case of extreme rule conflict. The title asks 'by...?' implying a multiple-choice date question, and the options list dates in 2026 (Dec 31 and June 30). However, the specific Rule text explicitly states the market resolves to 'No' if relations aren't established by Dec 31, 2025. This mismatch—where the rule defines a binary Yes/No for 2025 but the options are 2026 dates—creates massive potential for settlement disputes and user confusion.

While Middle East geopolitics is a common topic, Syria (the Assad regime) remains a core member of the Iranian-aligned 'Axis of Resistance' and is officially in a state of war with Israel. Although there is a trend of Arab nations normalizing ties with Syria, a leap directly to Israel-Syria normalization is a highly bold and unconventional prediction, sitting outside the norms of standard geopolitical forecasting.

If Israel and Syria were to announce diplomatic relations, it would represent a drastic restructuring of the Middle East geopolitical landscape (Score 4-5), implying a massive reduction in Iranian influence or a sudden de-escalation of regional tensions. Such a 'black swan' event would likely cause crude oil prices to plunge (as war risk premiums evaporate) and boost risk sentiment in the region. It serves as a significant geopolitical hedge.

Mainstream international relations experts and media universally consider the probability of Israel-Syria diplomatic normalization in the short term to be effectively zero. However, the prediction market still implies a 13% probability for December 31, 2026. This divergence does not stem from informational differences in the real world, but rather from a lack of sufficient capital willing to tie up funds shorting the market (buying 'No') to flatten the price, leaving the long-tail odds overpriced by irrational buying.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest geopolitical developments regarding 'Israel-Syria normalization,' and combining this with the $1.68M trading volume and order book depth, assess whether the current odds accurately reflect the diplomatic possibilities following Syrian regime shifts (e.g., potential post-Assad scenarios), or if they are simply priced based on historical inertia.

World|$706.6k Vol|

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' and hold until resolution Plan Description: Since the likelihood of a direct military clash between China and Japan before the end of 2026 (meet...

🔓 Log in to see more

Undervalued Options Insights:

The 'Yes' price is hovering around 8.5c. The fundamentals remain unchanged: both China and Japan are...

🔓 Log in to see more

The critical risk lies in the asymmetric definition of the China Coast Guard (CCG) versus the Japan Coast Guard (JCG). The rules explicitly state CCG is part of the military, while JCG is not. A clash between CCG and JCG creates ambiguity regarding whether it counts as a 'military encounter'. Additionally, while the exclusion of 'non-violent actions' is clear, the criteria for 'intentional ship ramming' resulting in 'significant damage' (versus minor scrapes) introduces subjectivity, especially in gray-zone conflicts involving para-military forces.

A direct military clash between China and Japan, even a limited skirmish, would represent a major breakdown of the post-WWII East Asian order, constituting a classic 'Black Swan' event. Gold, as the ultimate safe haven, would spike immediately (Score 5). Global equities (S&P 500) would crash due to panic selling, as this involves the world's 2nd and 4th largest economies and potential US involvement. US Treasury yields would likely fall initially due to a flight to safety. While the Yen is usually a safe haven, an attack on Japan itself might weaken it, making the DXY (US Dollar Index) a more reliable hedge. Crude Oil would likely rise due to supply chain disruption fears.

Culture|$14.1m Vol|

GTA VI released before June 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on Take-Two's official guidance, the GTA VI release window is firmly locked to Fall 2026. With...

🔓 Log in to see more

This event is a structural mover for Take-Two Interactive (TTWO). With the recent Feb 2026 earnings call confirming a delay to Nov 19, 2026, a 'No' outcome is priced in. However, an unexpected 'Yes' (release before June) would be a massive shock, sending TTWO stock soaring. Console makers like Sony (SONY) and Microsoft (MSFT) are moderately correlated due to hardware sales cycles, alongside peripheral makers like Turtle Beach (HEAR).

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for "GTA VI released before June 2026?", analyze the order book depth and recent whale activities, and combine this with the official tone from Take-Two's latest earnings call to reassess if the current price adequately reflects the risk of a delay from the "Fall 2025" window to late 2026.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for "GTA VI released before June 2026?", analyze the order book depth and recent whale activities, and combine this with the official tone from Take-Two's latest earnings call to reassess if the current price adequately reflects the risk of a delay from the "Fall 2025" window to late 2026.

Weather|$13.9k Vol|

Highest temperature in Chicago on May 15?

Top Undervalued

74°F or higher(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest weather forecasts (including NWS and commercial weather services), the high temp...

🔓 Log in to see more

There is a notable divergence. The National Weather Service (NWS) explicitly forecasts a high near 78°F for Chicago on May 15, and other outlets like AccuWeather also predict 74-75°F or higher. However, the prediction market only prices the '74°F or higher' option at 37.5%, reflecting a conservative market sentiment or information lag regarding the expected warming.

How exactly is the highest temperature at Chicago O'Hare verified on Wunderground, and will it affect the resolution if the data is revised after being finalized?

Weather|$10.8k Vol|

Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport (RJTT) on...

🔓 Log in to see more

Betting on the precise daily high temperature of a specific city is a relatively niche segment in prediction markets. While weather forecasting has a professional market, the general public rarely bets on such daily meteorological details.

How does Wunderground record and finalize the maximum daily temperature for Tokyo Haneda Airport (RJTT), and are there any risks of data delays or halted updates for market resolution?

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