All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
↓ $290
YesNo
↓ $275
YesNo
↑ $330
YesNo
↑ $340
YesNo
↓ $260
YesNo
↑ $320
YesNo
↑ $355
YesNo
↓ $240
YesNo
↓ $215
YesNo
↑ $420
YesNo
↑ $375
YesNo
↑ $395
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 20:57 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 16, 2026, GOOGL has recovered to ~$305, with a monthly range of $294.08-$311.42. With earnings season over and only 15 days remaining, the probability of crashing through $240/$260 (>20% drop) is minimal. The previous panic pricing (which spiked to 50%) has largely normalized. Based on ~32% implied volatility, touching $320 (a 5% rise) is within a 1-standard-deviation move, making its pricing fair; however, deep OTM options like $240 currently exhibit logical inversion, and their fair value should be near zero.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'Yes ↓ $260' (5.2c) + Buy 'No ↓ $240' (93.95c)
Plan Description:
Severe logical pricing error (Monotonicity Violation). The price must breach $260 to reach $240; thus, the probability of 'Yes $260' must logically be >= 'Yes $240'. Currently, 'Yes $240' (6.05c) is priced higher than 'Yes $260' (5.2c). By purchasing this combination, the strategy yields a profit regardless of the outcome (Cost 99.15c, Payout 100c), assuming standard continuous settlement logic.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 1¢
|Annualized yield: 20.8%
Hedging
Nasdaq 100
GOOGL
This event directly tracks Alphabet (GOOGL) stock performance. If extreme options (e.g., '↓ $240' or '↑ $420') are triggered, it implies a structural shock (>20% move) within a single month, representing an 'Extreme' impact (Score 5) for GOOGL and a significant mover for the Nasdaq 100 (Score 3) due to its heavy weighting. Buying specific outcomes serves as a direct portfolio hedge.
Movers
Mar 15, 2026 - Mar 16, 2026, the price of ↑ $320 rebounded from 29.5c to 41.5c, as GOOGL stock stabilized around $305 on Monday following a mid-week pullback, significantly reviving the probability of touching $320 within the remaining half-month.
Mar 9, 2026 - Mar 13, 2026, prices for ↓ $240 and ↓ $260 collapsed from anomalous highs of ~50c back to <10c, as the previous panic regarding a liquidity crunch or fat-finger error subsided, and pricing returned to fundamental logic.
Divergence
While mainstream analysts and media hold a 'Buy/Hold' consensus expecting steady growth, the prediction market price for $240 (6c) remains significantly higher than theoretical models (<1c) and exhibits a logical inversion (more expensive than $260), indicating residual irrational noise in tail-risk pricing.
