All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
↑ $140
YesNo
↓ $70
YesNo
↓ $0
YesNo
↑ $175
YesNo
↑ $298
YesNo
↑ $368
YesNo
↑ $105
YesNo
↑ $455
YesNo
↓ $35
YesNo
↑ $228
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.11 17:33 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 11, 2026, Netflix (NFLX) trades around $97-$99 following a 10-for-1 stock split in late 2025. Given this post-split context, '↑ $175' implies an ~80% rally in 50 days, which is highly improbable for a large-cap stock; its current market price (41.5c) is grossly overvalued and fair value is near 0. Conversely, '↑ $105' (requiring a ~7% gain) is a reasonable target with fair value around 45c. The market exhibits severe logical incoherence (175 priced higher than 140), likely due to illiquidity or stale limit orders.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
There are two main risks: 1. Ambiguity of 'Hit'. It usually implies intraday touch, but could mean closing price, or specifically touching *during* April (if it hits the target in March and stays above, does it count for April?). 2. Extreme option spread ($0 to $455). Given NFLX's current price (~$98) and likely recent stock split (adjusted ATH is ~$134), the high strike options like $368 and $455 appear to be legacy pre-split figures, making them virtually impossible and potentially misleading.
Hedging
NFLX
The event result is directly determined by the Netflix stock price, making it highly correlated and valuable for hedging NFLX itself (Score 5). If NFLX experiences significant volatility (e.g., hitting $140 or dropping to $70), it would have a minor intraday impact on tech indices like the Nasdaq 100. This market is suitable for investors holding NFLX stock to hedge directional risk.
Divergence
The primary divergence is internal market failure. While the '↑ $105' (50%) pricing aligns reasonably with Wall Street's outlook for NFLX (current ~$98, target ~$113), the '↑ $175' (41.5%) pricing is completely divorced from reality. It contradicts both rational analyst ranges and the pricing of other options within the same market (e.g., the $140 option).
