All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
↑ $244
YesNo
↓ $160
YesNo
↑ $184
YesNo
↓ $148
YesNo
↑ $192
YesNo
↓ $168
YesNo
↑ $200
YesNo
↓ $176
YesNo
↓ $100
YesNo
↓ $120
YesNo
↑ $264
YesNo
↓ $136
YesNo
↑ $212
YesNo
↑ $228
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.11 23:25 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on NVDA's current price (~$186) and external forecast ranges for April 2026 ($165-$210), the market exhibits severe pricing inefficiencies. Most deep Out-of-the-Money (OTM) options (e.g., dropping below $120 or rising above $244) are erroneously priced at ~50c, likely due to extremely low liquidity resulting in default quotes rather than genuine probability. Volatility models suggest the probability of NVDA breaching $120 or $244 within 50 days is very low (<10%), so fair values should be significantly lower than current market prices.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
High rule risk. The term 'hit' is ambiguous; it is unclear whether it refers to an intraday touch, a daily close, or the monthly settlement price. Additionally, the directional arrows (e.g., ↑ $184) suggest barrier options, but if this is a mutually exclusive market, the settlement logic is undefined for scenarios where multiple price levels are touched (e.g., dropping to $120 then rising to $184) within the same month.
Hedging
NVDA
Nasdaq 100
This market is directly correlated with NVDA's stock performance. If the market implies NVDA will hit extreme prices (e.g., ↓ $100), it corresponds to significant volatility in the equity market. This event serves as a direct hedge for exposure to NVDA stock or the Nasdaq index (AI/Tech sector).
Divergence
There is a massive divergence between market prices and fundamental forecasts. Mainstream algorithmic models (e.g., CoinCodex) predict an April 2026 range of $165-$210 for NVDA. However, the prediction market implies a 49% probability of dropping below $120 (Fair Value <5%) and a 50% probability of breaking above $244 (Fair Value <10%). This immense deviation is primarily due to inefficient pricing from lack of liquidity rather than genuine trader sentiment divergence.
