All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
↑ 0.0054
YesNo
↓ 0.0014
YesNo
↑ 0.0042
YesNo
↓ 0.0010
YesNo
↑ 0.0062
YesNo
↑ 0.0034
YesNo
↑ 0.0038
YesNo
↑ 0.0090
YesNo
↑ 0.0046
YesNo
↑ 0.0058
YesNo
↑ 0.0050
YesNo
↑ 0.0080
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 05:17 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market is exhibiting extreme pricing chaos. Fundamentally, Pump.fun faces dual pressure from regulatory issues (UK FCA ban, class-action lawsuits) and technical breakdown (falling below $0.0020 support), significantly reducing the probability of hitting upside targets (like 0.0034) while increasing downside risks. However, the market shows severe 'monotonicity violations': harder targets (e.g., ↑0.0058 and ↓0.0010) are priced higher than easier targets (e.g., ↑0.0054 and ↓0.0014). The Fair Value model strictly corrects these logical impossibilities, significantly upgrading the undervalued ↓0.0014 option (which logically must be more expensive than ↓0.0010) and smoothing the upside curve.
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Rule Risk
There is significant semantic ambiguity: 'Hit' usually implies a 'Touch' or 'High Watermark' event (resolving anytime the price is reached), whereas the fixed settlement date (2027-01-01) typically implies a 'Closing Price' snapshot at that specific moment. If this is a 'Touch' market, it should resolve immediately upon hitting the target, not wait for 2027. Furthermore, the presence of both '↑' and '↓' options creates conflict; if price drops then rises, both directions could theoretically be 'hit,' creating dispute risks if the rules do not specify 'Close vs. Touch'.
Movers
Mar 13, 2026 - Mar 16, 2026, the price of option ↑ 0.0034 crashed from 80c to 59.5c. The reason is that Pump.fun's token price broke below key technical support ($0.00196) on Mar 15, combined with escalating news regarding class-action lawsuits and regulatory pressures (e.g., FCA ban), leading to a collapse in confidence regarding a rebound to 0.0034.
Mar 15, 2026 - Mar 16, 2026, the price of option ↑ 0.0054 dropped sharply from 21c to 14.5c. This drop created a massive price inversion relative to the 0.0058 option, likely caused by a single large sell order disrupting the market microstructure.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The prediction market prices '↑ 0.0034' at 60c, implying a very high probability of the price doubling within 9 months. However, mainstream analysis (e.g., CoinCodex, MEXC) forecasts PUMP prices to stagnate or slowly drift lower around 0.0019 throughout 2026. The market's high volatility pricing (betting on both moonshots and crashes) conflicts with the 'stagnation' consensus from experts.
