All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
↓ 100
YesNo
↑ 600
YesNo
↑ 700
YesNo
↑ 800
YesNo
↑ 1000
YesNo
↑ 1100
YesNo
↑ 900
YesNo
↓ 50
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 14:35 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
The market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing failure, most notably with '↑ 700' priced higher (31.5c) than '↑ 600' (27.5c), which is logically impossible (monotonicity violation). Fundamentally, Zcash remains weak near $250 with unresolved governance issues. While the bearish outlook persists, the '↓ 50' option at 42.5c is overpriced, betting too heavily on a total collapse. The fair value model corrects these irrationalities, maintaining a bearish stance but lowering the odds for extreme downside.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Yes on '↑ 600' (27.5c) and Buy No on '↑ 700' (68.5c). Since hitting 700 implies hitting 600, the price of '↑ 700' should logically be lower than '↑ 600'. The current price inversion offers a risk-free arbitrage.
Plan Description:
This is a 'monotonicity arbitrage'. Logically, P(Price>700) must be ≤ P(Price>600). The market currently prices P(>700)=0.315 and P(>600)=0.275, a logical contradiction. The portfolio cost is 0.275 + (1-0.315) = 0.96. Regardless of the outcome, the minimum portfolio value is 1.00, yielding a risk-free profit of 4 cents.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 4¢
|Annualized yield: 5.2%
Hedging
ZEC
This market is directly correlated with the price action of Zcash (ZEC). While ZEC is not a systemic asset, this market serves as a direct hedge for ZEC holders. ZEC's price often correlates with Bitcoin and the broader market, but its privacy coin narrative can drive independent moves. If the market predicts a crash (e.g., ↓ 50), it could reflect macro regulatory risks against privacy coins.
Movers
On March 11, 2026, the '↓ 50' option surged from ~24c to 60c before settling at 42.5c. This indicates a sudden spike in panic regarding extreme collapse risks, or momentary price distortion due to liquidity drying up.
On March 9, 2026, the '↓ 100' option dropped rapidly from 62c to 49.5c before rebounding to 54.5c, suggesting bears took profits at key levels.
From Feb 28 to Mar 4, 2026, the '↑ 600' option recovered from 28c to 35c, but then fell back to 27.5c on Mar 10, reflecting bulls' failed attempt to sustain a bounce from the $250 support.
From Feb 27 to Feb 28, 2026, the '↓ 50' option briefly spiked to 36.5c before crashing back.
Divergence
Significant internal divergence and irrational pricing exist (e.g., strike 700 priced higher than 600). Furthermore, while the mainstream view is bearish (given ZEC struggling at $250), the market implies a 42.5% probability for '↓ 50', which is far more extreme than standard bearish sentiment, suggesting some capital is betting on a 'black swan' total project failure.
