All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Virgin River: Season 7
YesNo
STEEL BALL RUN JoJo's Bizarre Adventure
YesNo
Mark Normand: None Too Pleased
YesNo
Age of Attraction
YesNo
One Piece: Season 2
YesNo
The Dinosaurs
YesNo
Unicorn Academy: Secrets Revealed
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 22:42 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on Netflix's official methodology (Views = Hours Viewed / Runtime) and third-party tracking data (FlixPatrol) for the current tracking week (March 16-22): 1. 'One Piece S2' is dominating the daily charts (FlixPatrol points ~844) and is highly likely to remain #1, making it unlikely to resolve as #2 (meaning 'Yes' is a losing bet). 2. 'Virgin River S7', having a full 7-day tracking period this week and ranking a strong daily #2 (~546 points), is the clear favorite for the #2 spot. 3. Other candidates like 'Unicorn Academy' (late release, kids special), 'Mark Normand' (niche comedy), and 'Steel Ball Run' (Non-English anime) lack the volume to compete for #2.
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Divergence
Polymarket prices imply a three-way tie between 'One Piece', 'Virgin River', and 'Unicorn Academy' (~40¢ each). In contrast, real-time streaming data (FlixPatrol) shows a clear hierarchy: 'One Piece' is the dominant #1, 'Virgin River' is the solid #2, and others trail significantly. The market fails to reflect this data-backed certainty.
