What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
netflix|$4,908 Vol|
time2 days 16 hrs

What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.08 21:57
Top Undervalued
+8¢
Man on Fire(No)
+6.5¢
The Roast of Kevin Hart(Yes)
+4.5¢
Lord of the Flies(No)

What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week? AI analysis: • +8¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Current market prices indicate that 'Man on Fire' has surged significantly due to favorable viewersh...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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What will be the top global Netflix show this week?
netflix|$12.5k Vol|
time2 days 16 hrs

What will be the top global Netflix show this week?

Top Undervalued
+3.2¢
Man on Fire(No)
+1.4¢
Should I Marry A Murderer?(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to recent data, 'Man on Fire' premiered on April 30 and has dominated the #1 spot in nearl...
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Movers
Between May 5, 2026 and May 8, 2026, the price of 'Man on Fire' surged from 26c to 93.5c, while most other options like 'The Roast of Kevin Hart' collapsed below 10c. This is because mid-week data fully confirmed the dominant global viewership of 'Man on Fire', and investors realized the live event 'The Roast of Kevin Hart' would have too few eligible tracking hours to be a threat.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria for this Netflix Top 10 market like I'm 5, especially the "English only" rule and the condition that resolves to "Other" if the top10.netflix.com update is delayed past May 15.
What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
netflix|$13.9k Vol|
time2 days 16 hrs

What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
Swapped(No)
+1.5¢
Remarkably Bright Creatures(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market trends and estimates from Netflix's daily viewership charts, 'Swapped' ha...
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Movers
May 7, 2026 - May 8, 2026, the price of 'Swapped' continued to surge from 82.5c to 94.5c, because its leading position on the Netflix charts is virtually locked as the resolution date approaches. May 5, 2026 - May 7, 2026, the price of 'Swapped' surged from 29.5c to 83.5c. The likely reason is its dominant performance in the daily US Netflix viewership rankings, attracting significant market bets. May 5, 2026 - May 7, 2026, several initially popular alternatives like 'Apex', 'Black Phone 2', and 'Ladies First' saw their prices plummet by more than 10c, as capital consolidated around the much stronger performer 'Swapped'.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria for this market in simple terms, specifically how the Netflix US views ranking is determined and what happens if top10.netflix.com doesn't update by May 15, 2026.
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
Tech|$111.2k Vol|
time235 days 16 hrs

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Top Undervalued
+4.2¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The price of Option 'Yes' has steadily rebounded to around 69c after a brief dip in late April, show...
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Rule Risk
There is significant ambiguity and definition risk. The market requires Paramount to 'acquire control', but in the current Feb 2026 context, Paramount (now Paramount Skydance) is engaged in a hostile takeover and proxy fight, while the WBD board has already agreed to a deal with Netflix. Key risks: 1) If the Netflix deal fails and Paramount acquires only specific assets rather than full 'control', the resolution is unclear. 2) The deadline of December 31, 2026, is extremely tight. Given that the DOJ has already initiated an antitrust review, such regulatory processes often take 12-18 months. Even if Paramount wins the bidding war, if the deal does not legally 'close' by year-end due to regulatory delays, the market resolves to 'No'. M&A history (e.g., Microsoft/Activision) shows closings are frequently delayed beyond initial targets.
Hedging
NFLX
PARA
WBD
This event has extreme deterministic impact on the involved stock prices. WBD is the target; its price will directly peg to the winning bid (Netflix's $82.7B vs Paramount's $108.4B). A 'Yes' resolution (Paramount wins) implies a massive upside for WBD to match the hostile premium. If NFLX loses, its stock could react to the loss of a growth driver or relief from massive spending. Paramount (PSKY) would face a significant debt burden if it wins, likely pressuring its stock. This is a classic merger arbitrage hedging scenario.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest financials and M&A rumors for Paramount (PARA) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) as of March 2026. Analyze the Polymarket order book to determine if current odds reflect the fundamental difficulty of the smaller Paramount acquiring WBD, and identify potential arbitrage opportunities on the 'No' side due to the lack of substantive announcements.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Man on Fire
YesNo
69¢
31¢
61¢
39¢
0¢
+8¢
The Roast of Kevin Hart
YesNo
19.5¢
80.5¢
26¢
74¢
+6.5¢
0¢

Expand to view all 10 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Exotics
While predicting streaming charts is relatively common in pop culture markets, specifically forecasting the #2 spot (instead of #1) adds randomness and niche appeal.
Movers
2026-05-08 09:03 - 2026-05-08 18:48, the price of 'Man on Fire' surged from 25c to 61c, driven by strong weekend viewership data that highly increased its probability of taking the top 2 spots. 2026-05-07 07:03 - 2026-05-08 18:48, the price of 'Should I Marry A Murderer?' plummeted from 46c to 3c, as it slipped in the latest daily top 10 charts, losing its top 2 contention. 2026-05-07 09:13 - 2026-05-08 15:33, 'Lord of the Flies' dropped from 33c to 8.5c, as stronger performances from competitors pushed it down the rankings. 2026-05-06 14:53 - 2026-05-06 18:08, the price of 'Running Point' plummeted from 24c to 5.5c, as its premiere underperformed and fell out of top contention. 2026-05-06 11:43 - 2026-05-06 18:08, the prices of 'The Boroughs' and 'Berlin and the Lady with an Ermine' both crashed from 25.5c to around 4c. This is because their official release dates are in mid-to-late May, excluding them from this week's rankings. 2026-05-06 11:43 - 2026-05-06 14:53, the price of 'Unchosen' dropped heavily from 25c to 1.5c due to a lack of traction and weak first-week performance.

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