The core forecast is a toss-up between 31°C and 32°C. Major data source TWC (Google Weather) explici...

March 20, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of the 35°C option crashed from 16.5c to 2.6c. The reason is that confirmed heavy rainfall in Lucknow eliminated the possibility of a short-term heatwave (35°C+), forcing the market to correct its bets on high temperatures. March 20, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of the 32°C option surged from 17c to 43c. The reason is that as the rain-induced cooling became factual, meteorological models downgraded the expected high from the mid-30s to the 31-32°C range, causing capital to consolidate on this option.

Significant pricing divergence exists. The market currently prices 32°C as the heavy favorite (43c), yet key data sources like Google Weather (TWC) and IMD lean towards 31°C. Additionally, outlier sources like TimeandDate still predict 35°C, which may be confusing tail risk pricing, but given the recent rainfall reality, the probability of 31°C is significantly undervalued by the market.

While the resolution source, Wunderground, forecasts a high of 87°F (30.6°C), supporting the '31°C o...

This is a typical weather derivative market. While focusing on the exact temperature of a specific city on a single day is somewhat niche for the general public, it falls within the common and mature 'natural events' category of prediction markets, rather than being an absurd or novelty question.

March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '31°C or below' retreated from 94.5c to 87c, as rapid morning warming (81°F by 9:40 AM) caused traders to doubt Wunderground's conservative 87°F forecast, prompting hedges against higher temperatures. March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of '31°C or below' surged from 66.5c to 94.5c, as Wunderground's short-term forecast confirmed cloud cover and potential drizzle, significantly reducing market expectations for high heat.

Significant divergence exists. Polymarket pricing implies an 87% probability of the high staying at or below 31°C, aligning perfectly with Wunderground's 87°F forecast. However, AccuWeather (89°F/32°C), TimeAndDate (91°F/33°C), and Weather25 (95°F/35°C) all predict higher temperatures. Live observation data showing a warm morning (81°F) tends to support the hotter external models rather than Wunderground's conservative forecast.

Although the market has aggressively priced '19°C or higher' (current price 72c), there is a signifi...

This is a relatively niche weather prediction market. While weather itself is a common topic, betting on the precise maximum temperature of a specific city (Chengdu) on a specific future date (March 23) is a niche market, likely attracting meteorology enthusiasts or traders seeking uncorrelated returns.

2026-03-20 to 2026-03-22, the price of '19°C or higher' surged from 26c to 72c, while '17°C' crashed from 26c to 5c. The reason is that as the forecast window closed (1 day to resolution), weather models confirmed a strong warming trend, causing the previously dispersed probability distribution to consolidate rapidly towards the high-temperature range (aligning with AccuWeather's 23°C), effectively ruling out cooler outcomes. 2026-03-20 to 2026-03-21, the price of '12°C' went to zero from 21c, as the probability of extreme cold weather was completely falsified.

Model divergence risk exists. Market pricing (dominated by >19°C) aligns closely with aggressive warm-bias models like AccuWeather (forecasting 23°C), which may diverge from the historically conservative tendencies of the resolution source, Wunderground/IBM (previously forecasting 17°C). If Wunderground resolves at 18°C, the favored 72c option will expire worthless.

The Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) updated its forecast on March 22 at 16:30, explicitly predicting a r...

There is a significant geographical definition risk. The resolution source 'Hong Kong Observatory' typically refers to the specific monitoring station at the HKO Headquarters in Tsim Sha Tsui, not the highest temperature recorded anywhere in the territory. In spring, the New Territories (e.g., Sheung Shui) are often 2-4°C hotter than the HQ. Users betting on the 'territory-wide max' instead of the specific HQ station data will likely lose. Additionally, reliance on the finalized 'Daily Extract' means initial real-time readings could be subject to minor quality control revisions.

March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026: The price of the '26°C' option surged from 13.5c to 30c, while '28°C or higher' dropped from 33c to 22c. Reason: The market refined its positioning around HKO's updated '27°C' cap. Traders unwound over-optimistic bets on '28°C+' and hedged into '26°C' to protect against potential cloud cover capping the heat. March 21, 2026 (12:15-18:45): The price of the '23°C' option crashed from 29c to 3.5c, while '27°C' spiked from 20c to 32.5c. Reason: HKO updated its forecast in the afternoon, significantly raising the expected temperature to 27°C, directly contradicting earlier global models that predicted cooler, rainy conditions.

Significant divergence exists. Global weather models (e.g., Google/Weather.com) are still predicting temperatures around 23°C - 24°C for Hong Kong on March 24, which is far below the 27°C predicted by the local authority, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO). The prediction market is correctly ignoring global models and tracking the HKO (the resolution source), causing a disconnect between market pricing (anchored at 27°C) and the data seen by the general public on standard weather apps (showing ~23°C).

Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'No 20°C' (Price ~0.97) Plan Description: At 18:10 Wellington time, the temperature is 18°C, a full 2 degrees below the 20°C threshold. A sudd...

It is currently 6:10 PM NZDT in Wellington on March 23, and the peak heating window has passed. Real...

From March 22 to March 23, 2026, prices for [21°C] and [22°C] crashed from 56c and 34c respectively to under 1c, while [18°C] surged from near-zero to a high of 96c. This was caused by a major forecast bust: the predicted high of 22°C (MetService) failed to materialize due to cool Southeasterly winds, capping temps at ~18°C and forcing a capitulation of high-temp positions. On March 23 (Intraday), [18°C] retraced from 96c to 87c while [19°C] rose from 4c to 10c. This reflects late-day hedging against rounding risks (e.g., 65°F vs 66°F) or a potential evening wind shift bumping the final reading to 19°C.

Significant factual divergence exists. Mainstream forecasters (MetService) predicted a high of 22°C, but the prediction market has correctly identified a forecast bust based on real-time observation (actual ~18°C), pricing out the erroneous official guidance.