What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?
Culture|$9,054 Vol|
time2 days 15 hrs

What will be the top global Netflix movie this week? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.08 20:53
Top Undervalued
+1.4¢
Remarkably Bright Creatures(No)
+0.7¢
Apex(No)
+0.4¢
The Silent Twins(No)

What will be the top global Netflix movie this week? AI analysis: • +1.4¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
The market heavily favors 'Swapped', with its Yes price reaching 94.5c. As the tracking week is near...
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China coup attempt before 2027?
Politics|$127.0k Vol|
time235 days 15 hrs

China coup attempt before 2027?

Top Undervalued
+1.6¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current price of Option_'Yes' hovering around 6c primarily reflects the prediction market's spec...
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Rule Risk
The definition of 'coup attempt' is strict, requiring an 'attempted execution'. Foiled plots or arrests without execution do not qualify. This creates a grey area, as coups are often secretive; distinguishing between a 'conspiracy without action' and an 'attempt crushed at inception' can be difficult based on limited public information.
Exotics
Given China's current political stability and centralization of power, publicly discussing or predicting such an event is a low-probability 'black swan' scenario. This falls outside standard geopolitical forecasting, leaning heavily into speculative and fringe territory.
Hedging
FXI
US 10Y Yield
HSI
Gold
S&P 500
A coup attempt in China would be a geopolitical earthquake of global magnitude. The most direct impact would be on the Hang Seng Index (HSI) and China-related ETFs (like FXI), which would likely face a panic crash. Global risk-off sentiment would spike, driving up Gold prices. US equities (S&P 500) would likely drop due to uncertainty, and US Treasury yields could see significant volatility from flight-to-safety flows.
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Business|$103.7k Vol|
time235 days 15 hrs

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As of May 8, 2026, the price of Option_'Yes' has fluctuated narrowly between 5.5c and 12.5c over the...
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Hedging
Bitcoin
US 10Y Yield
Gold
S&P 500
DXY
An emergency Fed meeting and rate cut is typically a response to a severe financial crisis, liquidity freeze, or exogenous shock (e.g., pandemic, war, bank failure). If this resolves 'Yes', it implies markets are in panic mode, causing a structural shock across all asset classes: Equities typically crash due to fear (despite the cut offering support), Treasury yields would plummet due to safe-haven flows and policy expectations, and Gold would surge. Thus, this is a highly significant macro hedging event.
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
World|$1.8m Vol|
time235 days 15 hrs

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With about 236 days remaining until the end-of-2026 expiration, time decay continues to take effect....
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Hedging
Nasdaq 100
TSM
Gold
S&P 500
Crude Oil
This event carries extreme macro impact. A confirmed 'Yes' resolution (actual military clash) would be a global black swan event. TSMC (TSM) is directly in the line of fire, and its stock would face a structural collapse. Gold (safe haven) and Crude Oil (strategic commodity) would spike due to panic and supply fears. Given Taiwan's centrality to the global semiconductor supply chain, the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 would suffer severe crashes due to supply chain disruption risks and geopolitical shock.
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
World|$285.4k Vol|
time235 days 15 hrs

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Top Undervalued
+6.5¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The threshold for a 'Yes' resolution is extremely high, requiring an actual exchange of gunfire (e.g...
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Rule Risk
There are critical nuances in the rules that create potential for dispute. First, the China Coast Guard (CCG) is defined as military, while the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not. Given that recent clashes have primarily involved coast guard vessels, this creates an asymmetric trigger. If CCG engages PCG, it relies on strict interpretation of whether an engagement involving one non-military side counts as a 'military encounter' under the spirit of the rule. Second, the threshold for ship ramming ('intentional' and 'significant damage' like a hole) relies on assessing intent and damage severity, which are subjective and prone to conflicting reporting.
Hedging
US 10Y Yield
Gold
Crude Oil
S&P 500
If a genuine military clash occurs (resolves Yes), it would be a significant geopolitical black swan, especially given the risk of triggering the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. This would immediately spike risk-off sentiment, driving Gold higher. As the South China Sea is a critical shipping lane, conflict could disrupt supply chains and energy transport, boosting Crude Oil and depressing global equities (e.g., S&P 500). US Treasury yields would likely drop due to flight-to-safety buying given potential US involvement.
Iran Nuke before 2027?
Politics|$590.7k Vol|
time235 days 15 hrs

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Top Undervalued
+0.4¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current price for Option_'Yes' is around 8 cents. With only about 7.5 months left until the Dece...
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Hedging
Gold
Crude Oil
S&P 500
US 10Y Yield
If Iran is confirmed to possess a nuclear weapon, it would be a massive geopolitical shock (Score 5). This would drastically heighten fears of a preemptive strike by Israel or a broader regional war, directly threatening Persian Gulf oil supplies and causing Crude Oil prices to spike. Gold would rally significantly as a safe haven, while US Yields and Equities would see high volatility due to risk-off sentiment and inflation expectations driven by oil shocks.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Remarkably Bright Creatures
YesNo
3.45¢
96.55¢
2¢
98¢
0¢
+1.4¢
Apex
YesNo
1.75¢
98.25¢
1¢
99¢
0¢
+0.7¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
From 2026-05-05 to 2026-05-08, the price of 'Swapped' surged from 27c to 94.5c because as the tracking week approached its end, streaming tracking data clearly showed its weekly views far exceeded competitors, nearly locking in the top spot. From 2026-05-05 to 2026-05-08, the price of 'Remarkably Bright Creatures' plummeted from 24.5c to 4.1c, as its actual weekday and weekend viewership significantly lagged behind 'Swapped', effectively eliminating it from the race. From 2026-05-05 to 2026-05-08, the price of 'Apex' consistently declined from 24.5c to 2.3c due to weak second-week performance, failing to maintain its initial momentum and losing its chance at the weekly crown. From 2026-05-05 to 2026-05-08, prices for most other non-contenders (e.g., 'Roommates', 'Green Book') plummeted from above 20c to near zero as uncertainty faded and market capital concentrated entirely on the undisputed leader.

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