What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
netflix|$15.0k Vol|
time1 days 20 hrs

What will be the top US Netflix movie this week? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.04 09:39
Top Undervalued
+1.9¢
The Truth and Tragedy of Moriah Wilson(No)
+1¢
Anaconda(No)
+0.9¢
The Bad Guardian(Yes)

What will be the top US Netflix movie this week? AI analysis: • +1.9¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest prediction market prices and trends, 'Anaconda' has surged to 94c, indicating it...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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What will be the top global Netflix show this week?
Culture|$33.9k Vol|
time1 days 20 hrs

What will be the top global Netflix show this week?

Top Undervalued
+9.9¢
Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1(Yes)
+4¢
ONE PIECE: Season 2(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Although previous market data (like FlixPatrol) showed 'Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen' domin...
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Rule Risk
The rules explicitly restrict the resolution to 'English only' TV shows, which diverges from the broad 'global' phrasing in the title. If a non-English show has the highest global views, it will not win. Additionally, there is a risk of data delay resulting in an 'Other' resolution.
Movers
2026-04-02 to 2026-04-04, the price of 'Raw: 2026 - March 23, 2026' crashed from 48c to 1.6c due to lower-than-expected viewership and liquidity shifting towards new entries or the 'Other' option. 2026-04-02 to 2026-04-04, the price of 'Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1' plummeted from 41c to 7c, likely because it was overtaken by a newly released or unlisted dark horse series. 2026-04-02 to 2026-04-04, the price of 'ONE PIECE: Season 2' dropped from 41c to 3.1c, sharing the same fate as market consensus shifted entirely away from the previously favored top contenders.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Previous analysis based on FlixPatrol data gave 'Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen' an overwhelming >90% chance of winning. However, the prediction market now prices all listed shows combined at less than 25%. This indicates that market participants have priced in recent, potentially non-public viewership intelligence suggesting that an unlisted show ('Other') will take the crown, contrasting with earlier mainstream expectations.
AI Analysis
Verify the historical update consistency of top10.netflix.com and explain the resolution criteria, specifically how global total views for 'English only' TV shows are defined and counted.
What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?
Culture|$16.1k Vol|
time1 days 20 hrs

What will be the top global Netflix movie this week?

Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man(Yes)
+2.5¢
Anaconda(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The sum of the YES prices for all listed options is currently only around 45 cents, strongly implyin...
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Movers
April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man recovered from 11.5c to 27c, likely regaining some market confidence following updated viewership trends. April 2, 2026 - April 3, 2026, Peaky Blinders briefly surged from 50c to 90.5c before crashing to 11.5c. Concurrently, Anaconda plummeted from 49.5c to 6c, and Minions dropped from 43c to 8c. This was caused by the market likely realizing that an unlisted blockbuster movie ('Other') is dominating the charts, catastrophically squeezing the implied probabilities of all listed options.
AI Analysis
Search Google News for the latest viewership reports and external box office data for Netflix releases like 'Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man' or 'Minions: The Rise of Gru'.
What will be the top US Netflix show this week?
Culture|$71.9k Vol|
time1 days 20 hrs

What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

Top Undervalued
+1¢
Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest market pricing and viewership projections, 'XO, Kitty' Season 3 maintains a domi...
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Movers
April 1, 2026 - April 4, 2026, driven by strong premiere weekend expectations, the price of 'XO, Kitty Season 3' surged significantly from 49.5c, peaking at 93c and stabilizing around 90c, reflecting high market consensus on its #1 rank. April 1, 2026 - April 4, 2026, 'Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1' plunged from 49c to a low of 5.5c, briefly rebounded to 26c, and then fell back to around 10c, indicating a steep decline in market confidence regarding its ability to compete with the new release. April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026, older shows like 'Love on the Spectrum: Season 4' and 'Beauty in Black: Season 2' plummeted from around 38c to near 0c, as the dominance of this week's top contenders became overwhelmingly clear, eliminating their chances.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution criteria for this market in simple terms, especially the risk of it resolving to 'Other' if top10.netflix.com is not updated by April 10.
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
Tech|$103.8k Vol|
time269 days 20 hrs

Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With the price rebounding to near 70c by late March, the market has largely digested the previous pa...
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Rule Risk
There is significant ambiguity and definition risk. The market requires Paramount to 'acquire control', but in the current Feb 2026 context, Paramount (now Paramount Skydance) is engaged in a hostile takeover and proxy fight, while the WBD board has already agreed to a deal with Netflix. Key risks: 1) If the Netflix deal fails and Paramount acquires only specific assets rather than full 'control', the resolution is unclear. 2) The deadline of December 31, 2026, is extremely tight. Given that the DOJ has already initiated an antitrust review, such regulatory processes often take 12-18 months. Even if Paramount wins the bidding war, if the deal does not legally 'close' by year-end due to regulatory delays, the market resolves to 'No'. M&A history (e.g., Microsoft/Activision) shows closings are frequently delayed beyond initial targets.
Hedging
NFLX
PARA
WBD
This event has extreme deterministic impact on the involved stock prices. WBD is the target; its price will directly peg to the winning bid (Netflix's $82.7B vs Paramount's $108.4B). A 'Yes' resolution (Paramount wins) implies a massive upside for WBD to match the hostile premium. If NFLX loses, its stock could react to the loss of a growth driver or relief from massive spending. Paramount (PSKY) would face a significant debt burden if it wins, likely pressuring its stock. This is a classic merger arbitrage hedging scenario.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest financials and M&A rumors for Paramount (PARA) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) as of March 2026. Analyze the Polymarket order book to determine if current odds reflect the fundamental difficulty of the smaller Paramount acquiring WBD, and identify potential arbitrage opportunities on the 'No' side due to the lack of substantive announcements.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
The Truth and Tragedy of Moriah Wilson
YesNo
5.9¢
94.1¢
4¢
96¢
0¢
+1.9¢
Anaconda
YesNo
95¢
5¢
94¢
6¢
0¢
+1¢

Expand to view all 12 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
April 2, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of 'Anaconda' surged from 20c to 94c, driven by its consistently strong viewership performance and holding the top spot in the latter half of the week, leading the market to virtually confirm its weekly championship. April 2, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of 'The Truth and Tragedy of Moriah Wilson' plummeted from 40.5c to 3.9c, as its total viewership failed to surpass Anaconda, revealing the disadvantage of its shorter tracking window. April 2, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the price of '28 Years Later: The Bone Temple' plummeted from 41.5c to 4.5c, as its viewership data rapidly declined, leading the market to deem it out of contention for the top spot. April 2, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of 'Minions: The Rise of Gru' crashed from 38c to 1c, due to chart performance falling far short of expectations, effectively eliminating it from the race.

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