The Fed rate sets the anchor for global asset pricing. If the rate hits extreme values (like the options ↓0% or ↑5.5%), it would cause structural shocks across nearly all asset classes. This market is essentially a bet on the macro monetary policy path, highly correlated with US Treasury yields, the Dollar Index, and risk assets (equities, crypto), making it a core tool for macro hedging.

Apr 30, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of '↓ 3.25%' fluctuated around 49c, bouncing to 51c at one point, reflecting the market's ongoing struggle and fine-tuning of expectations regarding whether the Fed can smoothly cut rates to 3.25%. Apr 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, the price of '↓ 3.25%' further retreated from 59.5c to 48.5c. Reason: Expectations for a rapid rate cut to 3.25% cooled further following recent hawkish remarks by the Fed or newly released macroeconomic data. Apr 29, 2026 - Apr 30, 2026, the price of '↑ 5.25%' crashed from 22.55c to 9.5c. Reason: Short-term inflation panic was quickly digested by the market, and extreme expectations of hawkish rate hikes faded, causing the price to revert to fundamentals. Apr 29, 2026 - Apr 30, 2026, the price of '↓ 3.25%' dropped significantly from 63.5c to 49c. Reason: Disturbed by short-term macroeconomic data, the market's certainty regarding the Fed smoothly cutting rates to 3.25% in 2026 has been shaken. Apr 28, 2026 - Apr 29, 2026, the price of '↑ 5.25%' surged from 4.2c to 22.55c. Reason: The market may have been hit by unexpectedly strong inflation data or hawkish Fed rhetoric, triggering a repricing of short-term rate hike or 'higher for longer' risks. Apr 25, 2026 - Apr 27, 2026, the price of '↓ 3.25%' crashed from 64.5c to 52.5c. Reason: The market may have slightly recalibrated its expectations for the terminal magnitude or pace of Fed rate cuts, leading to outflows from this most popular option. Apr 22, 2026 - Apr 24, 2026, the price of '↓ 1.25%' crashed from 25.05c to 6.85c. Reason: Market panic sentiment quickly retreated after a short-term surge, with safe-haven funds massively withdrawing from extreme tail-risk options. Apr 20, 2026 - Apr 22, 2026, the price of '↓ 1.25%' surged from 4.05c to 25.05c. Reason: The market may have encountered sudden panic sentiment or a massive influx of funds for extreme tail-risk hedging, leading to a sharp repricing of deep recession options. Apr 14, 2026 - Apr 16, 2026, the price of '↓ 1.25%' crashed from 22.5c to 10.2c. Reason: Market panic regarding a deep recession dissipated further, with extreme tail-risk hedging funds continuing to withdraw, causing the price to revert towards fundamentals. Apr 11, 2026 - Apr 13, 2026, the price of '↓ 1.25%' continued to surge from 6.35c to 28.95c. Reason: Risk-off sentiment fermented further, with capital continuously pouring into extreme recession options for tail-risk hedging. Apr 8, 2026 - Apr 10, 2026, the price of '↓ 1.25%' crashed from 22.25c to 8.2c. Reason: The market returned to normalcy after a brief risk-off sentiment, leading to a sharp contraction in the pricing of deep recession risks.