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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
↓ 1.25%
YesNo
↓ 2.5%
YesNo
↓ 1.5%
YesNo
↑ 4.25%
YesNo
↑ 4.5%
YesNo
↓ 3.0%
YesNo
↓ 0%
YesNo
↓ 2.25%
YesNo
↓ 3.25%
YesNo
↓ 1.0%
YesNo
↓ 0.5%
YesNo
↑ 5.5%
YesNo
↓ 2.75%
YesNo
↑ 4.75%
YesNo
↓ 1.75%
YesNo
↓ 2.0%
YesNo
↑ 5.25%
YesNo
↑ 5.0%
YesNo
↓ 0.25%
YesNo
↓ 0.75%
YesNo
AI Insights:
3 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although the market currently prices an 80% probability of rates hitting 3.25%, this optimism disconnects significantly from the macro environment. With the Iran conflict in early March 2026 driving oil prices up and sticky inflation data, the risk of the Fed maintaining 'High for Longer' rates has risen sharply. Mainstream institutions like Goldman Sachs have delayed cut forecasts, making 'symbolic cuts only or no cuts' a high-probability scenario. Therefore, we significantly downgrade the fair value of all deep cut options (3.25% and below), believing the market undervalues stagflation risks. Additionally, we slightly increase the value of ↑ 5.5% as a tail-risk hedge, given that oil shocks could force the Fed to reconsider hikes or hold rates steady.
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Hedging
US 10Y Yield
DXY
Gold
S&P 500
Bitcoin
The Fed rate sets the anchor for global asset pricing. If the rate hits extreme values (like the options ↓0% or ↑5.5%), it would cause structural shocks across nearly all asset classes. This market is essentially a bet on the macro monetary policy path, highly correlated with US Treasury yields, the Dollar Index, and risk assets (equities, crypto), making it a core tool for macro hedging.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Polymarket prices imply an 80% probability of rates hitting 3.25% in 2026, requiring ~200bps of cuts, which typically corresponds to a severe recession scenario. However, current mainstream media and expert consensus (dominated by recent geopolitical oil spikes and Goldman reports) lean towards 'stagflation' or 'slow cuts amidst a soft landing,' suggesting the Fed will keep rates high to fight inflation. The prediction market is aggressively pricing in cuts, ignoring the hawkish policy path likely triggered by external shocks.
