All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
↓ $2.10
YesNo
↓ $2.00
YesNo
↑ $2.50
YesNo
↓ $2.20
YesNo
↑ $4.00
YesNo
↑ $3.50
YesNo
↑ $2.75
YesNo
↓ $1.50
YesNo
↓ $1.75
YesNo
↑ $3.00
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 09:52 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on market data and recent news, the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) is likely trading in the $2.38 - $2.45 range, maintaining a strong uptrend. Although late February data showed a composite index briefly touching $2.14, the failure of the '↓ $2.20' option to resolve suggests the resolution index (or finalized data) remained above $2.20, or the market considers that dip invalid. With '↑ $2.50' trading at 79c, it is undervalued given the proximity to the target and 44 days remaining; the fair value is closer to 85c. Conversely, the '↓ $2.10' and '↓ $2.20' options show a pricing inversion and are overpriced (>10c). Given institutional forecasts of Q2 2026 prices staying above $2.85, these bearish options should be valued near zero.
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Exotics
This is an economic metric targeting a specific vertical (AI compute market). Although GPU compute has become a commodity-like resource in 2026, the H100 rental price index remains a specialized industry figure, less mainstream than stock indices or exchange rates.
Hedging
NVDA
H100 rental prices are a direct barometer of AI compute supply and demand. An unexpected collapse in rental prices (e.g., dropping below $1.50) could signal cooling AI demand or hardware oversupply, creating a significant negative impact on Nvidia (NVDA) stock (Score 3); conversely, sustained high prices support the AI hardware sector.
Movers
March 10, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of '↓ $2.20' consolidated between 8c and 10c, following its previous crash from 26c. This indicates the market has priced in the 'rising floor' thesis, with current pricing reflecting long-tail risk hedging rather than genuine expectation of a drop.
March 2, 2026 - March 5, 2026, the price of '↓ $2.20' plummeted from 26c to 9.5c as the market confirmed, with expiration approaching, that H100 rental prices have firmly established a floor above $2.20.
