All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
US x Iran Ceasefire
YesNo
Fed Rate Cut
YesNo
US Confirms Aliens Exist
YesNo
AI Insights:
4 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
1. Ceasefire (Current 42c, Overvalued): While the price surge on March 18 suggests rumors of diplomatic talks or a delay in Kevin Warsh's confirmation, achieving an 'official ceasefire' within ~2 months (Warsh expected confirmation in May) is geopolitically improbable given the fresh war (started Feb 2026) and regime chaos in Iran. Fair value is closer to 30c. 2. Rate Cut (Current 14.5c, Overvalued): War-driven oil spikes ensure sticky inflation; the Fed cutting rates before May is fundamentally unlikely. 3. Aliens (Current 2.4c, Overvalued): Pure meme bubble with no fundamental basis.
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Rule Risk
There is significant rule risk. First, the discrepancy between the Title (Multiple Choice) and the Rules text (Binary Yes/No) suggests this is one specific contract within a group market. Second, defining an 'Official Ceasefire' between the US and Iran is highly ambiguous as they are not in a formally declared state of war; hostilities are often via proxies. The rules explicitly exclude 'informal understandings' or 'de-escalation', which contradicts the historical norm of US-Iran diplomacy, setting a very high and potentially disputable bar for resolution.
Exotics
This is a typical 'Race' style prediction market, arbitrarily linking a macro-financial appointment (Kevin Warsh) with a geopolitical black swan (US-Iran Ceasefire). While the individual events are serious, combining them to see 'what happens first' is a novelty structure designed for entertainment and speculative cross-domain betting rather than traditional financial hedging.
Hedging
Crude Oil
Gold
This market is highly correlated with Crude Oil. A 'Yes' resolution (Official Ceasefire) implies the immediate removal of a massive geopolitical risk premium from the Middle East, likely causing a sharp drop in oil prices. While Kevin Warsh's confirmation (often viewed as hawkish or pro-market) would impact US Treasury Yields, the shock value of a US-Iran peace deal on commodities is far more direct and significant.
Movers
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026: 'US x Iran Ceasefire' surged from 27.5c to 42c, likely driven by rumors of a delay in Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearings or leaked reports of backchannel diplomatic talks, expanding the perceived window for a ceasefire to occur before his confirmation.
March 12, 2026 - March 16, 2026: 'US x Iran Ceasefire' dropped significantly from 47.5c to 28c, as early war hostilities and aggressive rhetoric dimmed hopes for a short-term resolution.
March 1, 2026 - March 4, 2026: 'US Confirms Aliens Exist' briefly spiked to an all-time high of 15c driven by meme speculation on social media before crashing back down.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence between market pricing (42% implied probability of ceasefire) and geopolitical fundamentals. Mainstream military analysis suggests that achieving an 'official' ceasefire during the power vacuum following the Supreme Leader's death and within the first month of the war is highly improbable. The market is likely over-trading the expectation of a 'Warsh confirmation delay' rather than a genuine belief in a rapid peace process.
