Trump|$26.6k Vol|
8 days 7 hrsWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during the next White House press briefing? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Regime 10+ times
YesNo
Make Iran Great Again
YesNo
Illegal Alien
YesNo
Ayatollah / Mojtaba
YesNo
Go ahead 5+ times
YesNo
Ceasefire
YesNo
Hormuz
YesNo
SAVE Act / SAVE America Act
YesNo
Death to America
YesNo
AI / Intelligence
YesNo
Qatar / UAE / Oman
YesNo
Sponsor of Terror
YesNo
ICE
YesNo
Markwayne / Mullin
YesNo
Why not
YesNo
Boots on the Ground
YesNo
Hezbollah / Hamas
YesNo
Capitol Hill
YesNo
Air / Land / Sea 3+ times
YesNo
Lebanon
YesNo
Call your Democrat / Call a Democrat
YesNo
Threat
YesNo
Democrat Shutdown
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 22:11 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Current simulated date is March 16, 2026. 1) **SAVE Act**: Senate Republicans are set to vote on this bill this week, and Trump has threatened a legislative blockade until it passes; it is the dominant domestic story, making a mention highly probable. 2) **Hormuz**: The Strait is 'effectively closed' due to the Iran conflict, causing a global energy crisis; this is the central foreign policy focus. 3) **Go ahead 5+**: A standard procedural phrase for managing the press; probability of 5+ uses in a standard briefing is very high, making it undervalued. 4) **Regime 10+ times**: While 'Regime' is common, the threshold of 10+ mentions is statistically difficult to hit in a standard Q&A unless she delivers a specific lengthy monologue on the topic.
Sign up to view more information
Exotics
This falls into the highly customized 'Political Bingo' category. Participants are betting on specific vocabulary (slogans, locations, or catchphrases) used during a press briefing rather than substantive political outcomes. This micro-betting on rhetorical details is niche and novelty-driven.
Movers
February 25, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of the 'Illegal Alien' option plummeted from 83c to 40c. The reason is a dramatic shift in the news cycle from border/immigration issues to the outbreak of the war in Iran (Operation Epic Fury) and the Strait of Hormuz crisis, reducing the priority of immigration topics in the briefing.
Divergence
Divergence exists on 'Go ahead 5+ times' and 'SAVE Act'. The market assigns only 41% probability to 'Go ahead', ignoring that it is a standard structural phrase used to call on reporters. Meanwhile, despite overwhelming media coverage of the SAVE Act vote this week, the market prices it at only 72%, underestimating the certainty of it being mentioned as part of the White House's proactive agenda.
