All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
3.75%
YesNo
3.25%
YesNo
2.75%
YesNo
4.0%
YesNo
3.0%
YesNo
3.5%
YesNo
2.5%
YesNo
≥ 4.5%
YesNo
≤1.0%
YesNo
4.25%
YesNo
2.0%
YesNo
2.25%
YesNo
1.25
YesNo
1.5%
YesNo
1.75%
YesNo
AI Insights:
4 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 18, 2026, during the FOMC meeting, consensus among economists and analysts points to a 'Hawkish Hold' driven by the conflict in the Middle East (Iran), spiking oil prices, and sticky inflation (PCE). The new 'Dot Plot' is highly likely to revise 2026 rate cut expectations down from '1-2 cuts' to '0-1 cut'. However, the prediction market still assigns a high probability (23.5c) to '2 cuts' (3.25%) while significantly underpricing 'No Cuts' (3.75%) at only 17.25c. The fair value model suggests probability mass should shift heavily towards 3.75% (status quo) and 3.5% (single symbolic cut) as stagflation risks rise, indicating 3.25% and lower options are overvalued.
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Hedging
US 10Y Yield
DXY
Gold
S&P 500
The Fed rate is the gravitational parameter of global financial markets. The rate level at the end of 2026 reflects market expectations for the terminal rate (or neutral rate) of the current cycle. This outcome directly impacts the shape of the US Treasury yield curve (especially medium-to-long term yields), which in turn drives the strength of the Dollar Index (DXY) and valuation models for Gold and equities. This is a macro-benchmark event with high hedging value.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Mainstream media and macro analysts on March 18 are widely warning of 'stagflation' risks and predicting the Fed will remove planned cuts for 2026 due to the oil shock (implying a hold at 3.75% or higher). However, the prediction market still prices '1-2 cuts' (3.5% and 3.25%) as the primary consensus (aggregating ~55% probability), while the implied probability of 'No Cuts' (3.75%) is only 17%, significantly lagging behind the current hawkish fundamental narrative.
