Economy|$4,422 Vol|
13 days 4 hrsWhat will the median home value in Chicago be on April 1? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
<321k
YesNo
324 - 327k
YesNo
327 - 330k
YesNo
321 - 324k
YesNo
330 - 333k
YesNo
333 - 336k
YesNo
336 - 339k
YesNo
>339k
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 21:29 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on Parcl Labs historical data and seasonal trends, Chicago home prices typically see mild spring appreciation (+0.4% to +1% monthly). Given the March 1 benchmark of 315k-320k (~$210-$213/sqft), and accounting for expected growth through April 1, the settlement value is highly likely to fall within the 317k-323k range. Thus, '<321k' remains the primary favorite (covering 317-321k), with '321-324k' as the secondary outcome. The current market state, where multiple options are priced around 40 cents, represents extreme irrationality and market failure.
Sign up to view more information
Exotics
This is a relatively niche financial data market. While real estate prices are standard economic indicators, predicting the specific Parcl index for Chicago on a specific date is highly granular and lacks the broad mass appeal of major indicators like CPI or GDP.
Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026: Multiple options experienced violent and chaotic volatility. '<321k' surged from 6.7c to 34.6c, and '330-333k' jumped from 3c to 38.3c, while the previous favorite '321-324k' crashed from 85c to 40c. The reason appears to be a liquidity breakdown or severe mispricing, where nearly all 'Yes' prices mean-reverted to ~40c, completely detaching from fundamental logic.
March 15, 2026 - March 16, 2026: '321-324k' had established itself as the dominant favorite (reaching 85c), indicating high consensus at the time, which collapsed the following day.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. Fundamental analysis (based on Parcl seasonality) points to a valuation around 320k, but the prediction market is pricing in anomalously high probabilities for higher brackets (327k+), possibly influenced by external high-valuation reports (e.g., $224/sqft). Furthermore, the total implied probability exceeds 200%, indicating that market participants are not only divergent on price but have detached from basic probabilistic logic.
