Economy|$87 Vol|
13 days 4 hrsWhat will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on April 1? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
1.185 - 1.195m
YesNo
>1.195m
YesNo
1.175 - 1.185m
YesNo
1.165 - 1.175m
YesNo
1.125 - 1.135m
YesNo
<1.125m
YesNo
1.135 - 1.145m
YesNo
1.145 - 1.155m
YesNo
1.155 - 1.165m
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 20:31 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Based on Parcl Labs methodology, the San Francisco Metro Area median home value typically trails the city center. Estimating a Price Per Square Foot (PPSF) range of $670-$680, the calculation $675 * 1700 sqft yields 1.1475m. Thus, the highest probability lies in the 1.145m - 1.155m bucket. The current market exhibits extreme irrationality, with the sum of 'Yes' prices far exceeding 100% (approx. 267%), indicating a lack of liquidity or mispricing from initialization. Fair value is reassigned to a normal distribution centered around 1.15m.
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Movers
2026-03-16 to 2026-03-17: Prices for almost all options crashed significantly. For instance, '<1.125m' dropped from 48.6c to 8.6c, and '1.135 - 1.145m' fell from 48c to 13c. Reason: The data from March 16 showed all options priced near 50c, which is mathematically impossible (summing to ~450%), likely due to erroneous initial liquidity provisioning or a display bug. On March 17, the market began a correction phase, causing a crash across the board, though prices remain significantly inflated.
Divergence
The probability distribution implied by market prices exhibits an extreme multi-modal shape (e.g., >1.195m and 1.125-1.135m both implied at >40%), with a total probability sum far exceeding 100%. This fundamentally diverges from the statistical norm where real estate prices follow a normal distribution, and contradicts macro data suggesting stable housing price volatility.
