What will Trump post this week? (April 27 - May 3)
Politics|$4,722 Vol|
time0 s

What will Trump post this week? (April 27 - May 3) - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 08:00
Top Undervalued
+51.1¢
I love King / I love the King(Yes)
+39.1¢
Elon / Musk(Yes)
+37¢
Ammo / Ammunition(Yes)

What will Trump post this week? (April 27 - May 3) AI analysis: Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Trump's social media posts currently continue to focus on political attacks and core slogans. 'Midte...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Paris on May 3?
Weather|$38.3k Vol|
time11 hrs 55 mins

Highest temperature in Paris on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+37.5¢
20°C(No)
+11.9¢
17°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature in Paris on May 3, 2026, is expected ...
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Exotics
Betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city is a somewhat niche and novelty market. While weather forecasts are common, betting on them to the exact degree is rare for the general public and mostly appeals to weather enthusiasts or quantitative modelers.
AI Analysis
Which AI company will have the second-highest revenue May 4-10?
Tech|$10.7k Vol|
time6 days 23 hrs

Which AI company will have the second-highest revenue May 4-10?

Top Undervalued
+61.9¢
OpenAI(No)
+11.6¢
MiniMax(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The sum of the Yes prices across all options currently stands at 2.295, vastly exceeding the theoret...
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Rule Risk
The market asks for the 'second-highest' rather than the highest revenue, which could trap inattentive traders. Additionally, resolution relies entirely on short-term estimated data from a specific third-party platform (Anera) rather than official earnings, introducing risk of unexpected outcomes due to changes in estimation methodology or data delays.
Exotics
While predicting the revenue performance of top AI companies is relatively common, targeting the 'second place' for estimated inference revenue within a specific single week is highly niche and obscure, giving it a moderate level of novelty.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 3?
Weather|$17.4k Vol|
time11 hrs 55 mins

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+29¢
21°C(No)
+25.5¢
22°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest Wunderground forecast, the high temperature for Sao Paulo-Guarulhos Internat...
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Exotics
Weather prediction is a standard but niche category in prediction markets. While specialized traders focus on this, the general public rarely speculates on the exact high temperature of a specific city on a specific day.
Divergence
The prediction market currently concentrates its highest probabilities on 19°C, 20°C, and 21°C (totaling over 60%), but the resolution source (Wunderground) currently forecasts a high of only 64°F (~18°C) for May 3. Market prices may be influenced by other forecasting models (e.g., AccuWeather predicting 23°C) or historical climate averages, creating a noticeable divergence from the short-term forecast of the official resolution source.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
I love King / I love the King
YesNo
3.9¢
96.1¢
55¢
45¢
+51.1¢
Elon / Musk
YesNo
5.95¢
94.05¢
45¢
55¢
+39.1¢

Expand to view all 20 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
The resolution criteria are highly specific and technical. Risks involve the distinction between quoted text (does not count) and text in quote replies (does count), as well as strict rules regarding text embedded in static images vs. animated media, and misspellings. Bettors might easily misinterpret these nuances.
Exotics
Predicting the exact vocabulary or highly idiosyncratic phrases a political figure will use in a given week is quite unusual. It relies heavily on tracking personal habits, moods, and obscure topics rather than forecasting standard real-world events.
Movers
April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026: The price of 'Landslide' surged from 43.5c to 64c, driven by the potential high-frequency use of the word in recent political rallies or speeches to describe election expectations. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026: The price of 'Prosecute / Prosecution' rose from 49.5c to 66.5c, as legal investigations or related statements returned to the public spotlight. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026: The price of 'AI / Artificial Intelligence' plummeted from 57.5c to 30.5c, indicating that the topic's momentum abruptly shifted or lacked new catalysts for discussion. April 29, 2026 - April 30, 2026: The price of 'Blockade' crashed from 83c to 44c, as related protest or blockade events quickly died down after a period of news focus, reducing market expectations for Trump to post about it. April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026: The price of 'Trust Trump / Trust in Trump' experienced extreme volatility, surging from 21.5c to 72c before settling at 51.5c, likely due to a rally speech or trending event causing brief market speculation on the term. April 28, 2026 - April 29, 2026: The price of 'Hell' rebounded from 28c to 60c, as related political attack rhetoric resurfaced in the recent news cycle. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026: The price of 'I love King / I love the King' surged from 23.5c to over 52c, driven by developing narratives or news events. April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026: The price of 'Make Iran Great Again / MIGA' surged from 18.5c to 45c, as the Middle East news cycle reignited discussions on Iran policy, prompting market expectations that Trump will comment aggressively on the matter. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026: The price of 'Blockade' skyrocketed from 47.5c to 87c due to breaking and sustained news regarding a major blockade (likely geopolitical or large-scale protests), giving the market high conviction that Trump will weigh in. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026: The prices for 'POTUS', 'Hell', 'Book', and 'Midterm' all saw significant surges of over 25c. This is largely attributed to Trump preheating these specific narratives during weekend rallies or public appearances, prompting traders to quickly adjust positions to reflect his latest rhetorical focus.

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