Trump|$45.6k Vol|
3 days 7 hrsWhat will Trump post this week? (March 16 - March 22) - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Epic Fury
YesNo
Son
YesNo
Death to America
YesNo
SOTU / State of the Union / State of Our Union
YesNo
Donald Trump
YesNo
Cornyn
YesNo
IRGC / Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
YesNo
Filibuster
YesNo
Ayatollah / Khamenei
YesNo
Democrat Shutdown
YesNo
Chairman
YesNo
Hillary / Clinton
YesNo
Jake Paul
YesNo
Texas
YesNo
RINO
YesNo
Stupid
YesNo
Hamas / Hezbollah
YesNo
Illinois
YesNo
Ass
YesNo
Claude / Anthropic
YesNo
Mamdani
YesNo
Lawsuit
YesNo
Too Big to Rig
YesNo
Oscar / Oscars
YesNo
AI Insights:
5 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
1. 'Son' (53c -> 85c): Significantly undervalued. Barron Trump's birthday is March 20th (Friday), falling squarely within the market window (March 16-22). Trump habitually posts birthday wishes (e.g., 'Happy Birthday to my wonderful son'), making this a high-probability event-driven play. 2. 'Hormuz' & 'Strait of Hormuz': While the primary viral post was likely Sunday (March 15) and potentially out of window, his continued Tuesday (17th) ranting about NATO/Iran makes a recurrence highly probable. The high market price (86c) also suggests a qualifying post might already exist (e.g., UTC timezone nuance or a Monday morning reply). 3. 'Chairman' (86.5c): The V-shaped price action (89c -> 54c -> 86c) strongly suggests initial panic over 'Fed Chair' not counting, followed by the discovery of a valid 'Chairman' mention (possibly regarding FCC Chairman Brendan Carr). 4. 'Democrat Shutdown': He has used 'Democrats' and 'Shutdown' separately, but the exact bigram 'Democrat Shutdown' is unconfirmed, presenting phrasing risk.
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Exotics
This is a classic highly customized novelty market, predicting specific vocabulary choices of a political figure on social media. Such questions are far removed from macroeconomics or mainstream election results, representing micro-predictions based on personal behavioral traits, scoring high on novelty and entertainment value.
Hedging
Crude Oil
DJT
This market is highly correlated with Trump Media (DJT) stock, as Truth Social is its core asset and Trump's activity/content directly impacts investor sentiment. Additionally, options like 'Strait of Hormuz' and 'IRGC' are sensitive; their occurrence typically implies escalating geopolitical tension, which could trigger short-term volatility in Crude Oil or Gold.
Movers
March 17 - March 18, 2026, 'Chairman' surged from 54.5c back to 86.5c, as the market overcame earlier panic (caused by 'Fed Chair' failing the verbatim rule) and likely identified a new, valid mention (possibly related to the FCC Chairman).
March 17 - March 18, 2026, 'Son' rebounded from 20.5c to 53c, as the market began pricing in the upcoming March 20th catalyst (Barron's birthday) or correcting previous overselling.
March 16 - March 17, 2026, 'Democrat Shutdown' fell from 73.5c to 52.5c, as Trump's posts likely failed to match the exact phrase despite the topic being headline news (using the words separately).
Divergence
There is a timestamp divergence regarding 'Hormuz'. Mainstream media reports Trump's primary post about the Strait of Hormuz was on 'Sunday' (March 15), which is outside the market window (starts March 16). However, the market price (86c) is very high, suggesting traders either count that post as Monday (timezone nuance) or are confident in another less-cited reply/post occurring within the window.
