All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Liberation Day
YesNo
Snake
YesNo
Little Rocket Man
YesNo
China Virus / Wuhan Lab
YesNo
Truth Social
YesNo
Hottest Nation
YesNo
Bitcoin
YesNo
Easter
YesNo
N Word
YesNo
Aliens are Real
YesNo
Third term
YesNo
Capital of the World
YesNo
Banana Republic
YesNo
Judy Shelton
YesNo
Coward
YesNo
UFC Fight
YesNo
Low Energy
YesNo
Sudan
YesNo
War On Fraud
YesNo
Big Fat Cat
YesNo
Erika Kirk
YesNo
Secret Word
YesNo
Charlie Kirk
YesNo
Lonely
YesNo
Kanye / Taylor Swift
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 13:28 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Current date is March 16, leaving 15 days until settlement. 1. 'Easter' is approaching (April 5); Trump typically mentions major holidays weeks in advance, making 71c reasonable with upside potential. 2. 'Drill Baby Drill' was oversold down to 55c; as a core slogan, the probability of a mention in any single rally or interview is high, suggesting it is undervalued. 3. 'Truth Social' has seen high volatility (60c->39c->50c), but given it's his primary platform, the likelihood of him mentioning it should be higher than 50%. 4. 'N Word' (referring to Nuclear) remains a high-odds asymmetric play at 4c due to his rhetorical habits. 5. The rise in 'War On Fraud' suggests anticipated statements regarding election integrity or lawsuits.
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Exotics
This is a high-novelty market, akin to a 'political Bingo game'. It bets on the stochastic occurrence of specific vocabulary rather than concrete policy outcomes or election results, categorizing it as highly exotic and primarily for entertainment or rhetorical analysis.
Hedging
BTC
Most options (e.g., 'Low Energy', 'Snake') are political noise with no financial impact. The sole exception is 'Bitcoin'. Given Trump's history with crypto, a verbal mention is often interpreted as a policy signal or sentiment catalyst, sufficient to trigger short-term tradable volatility in BTC prices.
Movers
March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026, 'Truth Social' experienced a sharp V-shaped volatility, crashing from 60c to 39.5c before rebounding to 50.5c. Reason: Panic selling on platform-related news followed by a correction as dip-buyers entered.
March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of 'Drill Baby Drill' dropped from 66c to 55c. Reason: His failure to mention this slogan in public appearances over the last few days caused holder fatigue.
March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of 'War On Fraud' rose from 36.5c to 47c. Reason: Speculation that he is about to release a statement regarding election integrity.
March 5, 2026 - March 6, 2026, the price of 'Bitcoin' crashed from 70.5c to 42.5c due to the market misinterpreting a speech preview or his failure to mention the term during the event.
Divergence
Market pricing for 'Drill Baby Drill' (55c) diverges from mainstream consensus. As one of Trump's most famous slogans, the likelihood of him mentioning it within any two-week window is typically viewed as very high (usually >70%). The current low price likely reflects market overreaction to a potential lack of scheduled rallies in the immediate future.
