All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Affair
YesNo
Finish the Job
YesNo
Claude / Anthropic
YesNo
What's Up
YesNo
Democrat Shutdown
YesNo
Migrant Crime
YesNo
Ceasefire
YesNo
Crypto / Bitcoin
YesNo
Egghead
YesNo
Too Big to Rig
YesNo
Cure to Cancer
YesNo
No Inflation
YesNo
Nancy / Pelosi
YesNo
Armada
YesNo
Khamenei
YesNo
Doug / Burgum
YesNo
AI Insights:
1 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As we enter Wednesday (March 18), with less than 4 days until the deadline (March 22), 'Theta decay' is accelerating, particularly for slogans dependent on early-week rallies or specific news cycles. 1. 'Doug / Burgum' remains the highest-priced option, implying imminent cabinet appointments or executive orders where Doug Burgum is a central figure; fair value remains high but slightly discounted for uncertainty. 2. 'Democrat Shutdown' and 'Too Big to Rig' are the core narratives for the remainder of the week. With the Friday budget deadline approaching, 'Shutdown' mentions are highly probable. Similarly, 'Too Big to Rig' is a standard rally slogan, and with weekend events likely, its value holds. 3. 'Affair' and 'Finish the Job' are valuation traps; the former is a debunked rumor, and the latter missed its prime early-week window, warranting a steep discount. 4. Geopolitical terms (Khamenei, Armada) retain some premium as sudden foreign policy shifts could trigger mentions at any moment.
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Rule Risk
There are significant cognitive traps in the rules. 1. The exclusion of 'Written usages' is a major risk; Trump posts frequently on Truth Social, and participants often mistake written posts for valid mentions. 2. Videos must be 'filmed' (not just posted) within the timeframe; pre-recorded videos released during the week would resolve to 'No', creating verification difficulties regarding the exact filming date. 3. The compound word rule (joyful doesn't count for joy, but killjoy does) is tricky for careless readers.
Exotics
This is a classic 'Political Bingo' style entertainment market. Instead of focusing on substantial outcomes like election results or policy implementation, it gamifies a politician's speech patterns and vocabulary frequency. It is a highly exotic novelty derivative driven primarily by entertainment demand.
Movers
March 16, 2026 - March 18, 2026: 'Finish the Job' collapsed from 77c to 26.5c because the slogan did not appear in the expected early-week keynote speech. Panic selling ensued as opportunities for major speeches dwindled for the remainder of the week.
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026: 'Affair' crashed from 71.5c to 21.5c as the alleged 'scandal' circulating on social media was proven false or irrelevant, causing the bubble to burst after a classic 'Pump and Dump' cycle.
March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026: 'Doug / Burgum' corrected from 85c to 66.5c. While fundamentals remain strong, profit-taking occurred as time passed without a confirmed mention, bringing the price down from 'near certain' to 'highly probable'.
March 16, 2026 - March 17, 2026: 'Democrat Shutdown' experienced extreme volatility (84c -> 46c -> 70c -> 41.5c), mirroring the highly unstable news flow regarding Washington budget negotiations, with the market vacillating between 'shutdown' and 'deal reached' narratives.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. For the 'Affair' option, despite the rumor being debunked and social media heat fading, the market price lingers around 30c, which is higher than its fact-based probability (should be near 0-5c), indicating retail speculators are holding onto unrealistic hope. Conversely, 'Democrat Shutdown' is hovering around 50c, which likely underestimates the frequency of Trump's standard strategy to attack Democrats before a budget deadline; mainstream political analysis suggests the probability of him mentioning this topic should be closer to 70%.
