Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Science|$2.7m Vol|
time242 days 6 hrs

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? - AI Found +31.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 19:49
Top Undervalued
+31.5¢
2(No)
+22.4¢
3(Yes)
+18.5¢
1(No)

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? AI analysis: • +31.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
The market currently implies a combined probability of over 90% for Rank 1 and Rank 2, continuing to...
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Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 3?
Weather|$12.6k Vol|
time18 hrs 10 mins

Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+17.7¢
23°C(No)
+15¢
24°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature in Chengdu (Shuangliu International ...
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Exotics
This is a prediction market targeting the specific high temperature of a single day in Chengdu. Aside from local residents or specialized weather derivative traders, the general public rarely thinks about or predicts this specific data point, giving it a moderate level of novelty and exoticism.
Divergence
Current market prices imply a high temperature of 25°C to 26°C, but most weather forecast platforms (such as Google and AccuWeather data) predict a high between 23°C and 24°C. Market participants may be pricing in urban heat island effects or an upward trend in temperatures before forecast updates.
AI Analysis
Explain the Wunderground resolution rules and Celsius rounding conditions for the Chengdu May 3 highest temperature market in the simplest terms.
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 3?
Weather|$18.0k Vol|
time18 hrs 10 mins

Highest temperature in Shenzhen on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
30°C(No)
+3.5¢
29°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecast data, there will be light rain in Shenzhen (near Bao'an Int...
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Exotics
While predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is somewhat niche, weather data prediction is a recurring category on prediction markets. It's not extremely bizarre, though rarely a focus for the general public.
AI Analysis
How is the final highest temperature determined using the Wunderground history page for Shenzhen Bao'an Airport (ZGSZ) on May 3, and what are the exact rules for whole-degree resolution if decimals or data revisions occur?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on May 3?
Weather|$13.0k Vol|
time18 hrs 10 mins

Highest temperature in Chongqing on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+16.5¢
23°C(No)
+12¢
22°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current market prices indicate that 23°C, 24°C, and 25°C have the highest probabilities, cluster...
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Exotics
Betting on the exact highest temperature (to the whole degree) of a specific city on a given day is a very niche and novelty market. Ordinary people rarely think about or forecast such highly specific meteorological outcomes.
AI Analysis
Explain in simple terms how the highest temperature in Chongqing on May 3 will be determined. Will it affect the result if Wunderground revises the data afterwards?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 3?
Weather|$15.8k Vol|
time18 hrs 10 mins

Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+31.5¢
25°C(No)
+18¢
23°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to major weather forecasts (e.g., Google Weather, AccuWeather), the highest temperature at...
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AI Analysis
When will the Wunderground data for the highest temperature at Wuhan Tianhe Airport on May 3 be officially finalized?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 3?
Weather|$22.0k Vol|
time18 hrs 10 mins

Highest temperature in Beijing on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+21.5¢
21°C(No)
+15.5¢
24°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent weather forecasts indicate that the highest temperature at Beijing Capital International Airp...
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AI Analysis
Are there any known risks of data delay when Wunderground updates the historical temperature records for the Beijing Capital International Airport (ZBAA) station?
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
2
YesNo
56.5¢
43.5¢
25¢
75¢
0¢
+31.5¢
3
YesNo
2.65¢
97.35¢
25¢
75¢
+22.4¢
0¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Divergence
The market prices imply a >90% probability that 2026 will be the 1st or 2nd hottest year on record, which contradicts mainstream climate model forecasts. Scientific consensus generally holds that following a strong El Niño event (like in 2023-2024), La Niña or neutral conditions tend to bring a temporary cooling or plateau in global mean temperatures, meaning 2026 is much more likely to rank 3rd through 5th. The extreme market pricing is clearly driven by public alarmism over recent warming trends rather than meteorological data.

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