Science|$1.9m Vol|
287 days 7 hrsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
4
YesNo
2
YesNo
1
YesNo
3
YesNo
5
YesNo
6 or lower
YesNo
AI Insights:
1 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Global temperatures for early 2026 (Jan-Feb) rank only 5th historically, suppressed by lingering La Niña conditions, with anomalies significantly tracking below 2023 and 2024 levels. Scientific consensus (e.g., Berkeley Earth, NOAA) indicates that while El Niño may emerge in late 2026, its primary warming impact lags and will likely boost 2027 rather than 2026. Forecasts consistently project 2026 to be slightly cooler than 2025 (Rank 3), making Rank 4 the statistical favorite. The market's >60% implied probability for Rank 1 and 2 is grossly mispriced, ignoring the current temperature deficit and physical lags in ENSO forcing.
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Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'Rank 3' + 'Rank 4' + 'Rank 5' + '6 or lower' (Short Top 2)
Plan Description:
This is a classic 'soft arbitrage' opportunity. The market is irrationally bullish on Rank 1 and 2 (combined cost ~60.5c), implying a 60% chance of 2026 challenging 2024's record despite a cool start and established ENSO lags. By buying the entire field against the top 2 (Rank 3, 4, 5, 6+), one can construct a position for ~39.8c. According to climate models, this 'Rank > 2' bundle has a >95% probability of winning, offering a potential ~150% return on capital.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 60¢
|Annualized yield: 190.5%
Divergence
Extreme divergence. Major climate agencies (Berkeley Earth, NOAA) forecast 2026 to likely rank 4th warmest, supported by early-year data (currently 5th). However, the prediction market prices Rank 2 as the clear favorite (41%) and even assigns ~20% to a new record (Rank 1). This pricing is completely disconnected from current temperature anomalies and represents a significant sentiment bubble.
