All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Sloviansk
YesNo
Kramatorsk
YesNo
Dopropillia
YesNo
Druzkhivka
YesNo
Zaporizhia
YesNo
Sumy
YesNo
Kherson
YesNo
Kharkiv
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 04:04 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 15, 2026, only 107 days remain until the June 30 settlement. The spring mud season (Rasputitsa) is at its peak and is expected to persist until late April, severely hampering Russian mechanized advances. For Dobropillia, although the market price dipped slightly to 55c, it remains the next logical node on the Pokrovsk axis; if Russian offensives resume post-mud season, touching the city outskirts is plausible, justifying a fair value around 60c. For Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and Druzhkivka, Russian forces must first fully capture Chasiv Yar and breach subsequent fortified lines. Achieving this within 3 months is militarily highly improbable; current market prices (17c-25c) reflect excessive panic premiums, suggesting a bearish outlook. For deep targets like Kherson and Kharkiv, absent a tail-risk political capitulation or negotiated cession (requiring actual control), military reach is impossible. Their fair values should be near zero (2-3c), with current prices (5-8c) reflecting hedging costs.
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Hedging
Crude Oil
If Russia enters major strategic hubs like Kharkiv or Zaporizhia, it would be viewed as a significant escalation of the war, likely triggering energy supply fears (boosting Crude Oil) and global risk-off sentiment (benefiting Gold, weighing on equities). Market reaction would be milder for smaller settlements.
